A dangerous threat coming from the Arctic… What is it and why does it raise concern?

land that remains frozen for more than two years in a row, covers 30 million square kilometers of our planet, about half of which is in the Arctic, and this soil contains twice as much. Carbon Dioxide in the atmosphere and 3 times more emissions from human activities since 1850.

Temperatures in the Arctic are rising much faster than the rest of the world under the influence of climate change, by 2 to 3 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels, and the region has also recorded a series of abnormal weather conditions.

The permafrost itself experienced an average temperature rise of 0.4°C between 2007 and 2016, which "Raises concerns about the rapid rate of dissolution and the potential for carbon release"According to a study led by a researcher at the Space Research Center of the US Space Agency (NASA) Kimberly Miner.

The study predicts the loss of about 4 million square kilometers of permafrost by 2100, even if climate warming is curbed.

Fires also play a role in this situation, according to the study, and these wildfires could increase by 130 percent to 350 percent by the middle of this century, releasing more carbon from the permafrost.

A more immediate threat dominates nearly 70 percent of roads and pipelines Gas And oil, cities and factories built on permafrost, according to another study led by Jan Heuert, a researcher at Finland’s University of Oulu.

Russia faces a particular threat in this area, as nearly half of the oil and gas fields in the Russian Arctic are located in areas at risk of permafrost.

In 2020, a fuel tank collapsed when its foundations suddenly sank into the ground near Norilsk in Siberia, dumping 21,000 tons of diesel into nearby rivers.

In North America, roads and pipelines are also threatened.

As the science on permafrost progresses, some questions remain unanswered, particularly about how much carbon can be released.

Meiner and her colleagues emphasized that "Earth system models often overlook permafrost dynamics ", which means that the potential impact on climate warming is not sufficiently taken into account.

It is also unclear whether the thaw will increase the greenness of the Arctic, where plants will be able to absorb carbon dioxide emissions, or on the contrary, the area will become drier as the fires intensify.

Scientists warn that greenhouse gases leaking from permafrost threaten targets Paris Agreement for the climate.

Signatories to the agreement pledged in 2015 to limit global warming to "Much less" of 2°C, 1.5° if possible, compared to the pre-industrial era, in order to achieve carbon neutrality by around mid-century.

In order to achieve this, humanity must emit no more than 400 billion tons of carbon dioxide, according to recent findings by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

In light of current emissions, "carbon budget" subject to exhaustion within one decade.

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Permafrost, which is land that remains frozen for more than two years in a row, covers 30 million square kilometers of our planet, about half of which is in the Arctic, and this soil contains twice as much. Carbon Dioxide in the atmosphere and 3 times more emissions from human activities since 1850.

Temperatures in the Arctic are rising much faster than the rest of the world under the influence of climate change, by 2 to 3 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels, and the region has also recorded a series of abnormal weather conditions.

The permafrost itself experienced an average temperature rise of 0.4 degrees Celsius between 2007 and 2016, “which raises concerns about the rapid rate of melting and the potential for carbon release,” according to a study led by a researcher at the US Space Agency’s Space Research Center (NASA) Kimberly Miner.

The study predicts the loss of about 4 million square kilometers of permafrost by 2100, even if climate warming is curbed.

Fires also play a role in this situation, according to the study, and these wildfires could increase by 130 percent to 350 percent by the middle of this century, releasing more carbon from the permafrost.

A more immediate threat dominates nearly 70 percent of roads and pipelines Gas And oil, cities and factories built on permafrost, according to another study led by Jan Heuert, a researcher at Finland’s University of Oulu.

Russia faces a particular threat in this area, as nearly half of the oil and gas fields in the Russian Arctic are located in areas at risk of permafrost.

In 2020, a fuel tank collapsed when its foundations suddenly sank into the ground near Norilsk in Siberia, dumping 21,000 tons of diesel into nearby rivers.

In North America, roads and pipelines are also threatened.

As the science on permafrost progresses, some questions remain unanswered, particularly about how much carbon can be released.

Meiner and colleagues stress that “Earth system models often omit permafrost dynamics,” implying that the potential impact on climate warming is not sufficiently taken into account.

It is also unclear whether the thaw will increase the greenness of the Arctic, where plants will be able to absorb carbon dioxide emissions, or on the contrary, the area will become drier as the fires intensify.

Scientists warn that greenhouse gases leaking from permafrost threaten targets Paris Agreement for the climate.

Signatories to the deal pledged in 2015 to limit global warming to “well below” 2 degrees Celsius, 1.5 degrees if possible, compared to the pre-industrial era, in order to achieve carbon neutrality by around mid-century.

In order to achieve this, humanity must emit no more than 400 billion tons of carbon dioxide, according to recent findings by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Given current emissions, the “carbon budget” is likely to be exhausted within a decade.

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