After Afghanistan, Joe Biden, weakened, must achieve a faultless economic and health
Very weakened by the humiliating withdrawal from Afghanistan, Joe Biden has no other choice but to achieve a faultless economic and health to get his presidency back on track.
While the Pentagon announced Monday that the US military had left Afghanistan after twenty years of conflict, the image of the Democratic president, hand on heart, in front of the coffins of the 13 soldiers killed in a bombing in Kabul, will remain, just like the memory of a White House paralyzed at the time of the fall of the Afghan capital.
But, for some experts, in the longer term Americans will especially remember the major projects undertaken by Joe Biden to renovate their roads and reduce their medical or university bills.
“We live in such volatile times” that drawing hasty conclusions would be inappropriate, analyzes Allan Lichtman, professor of political science at American University.
For him, the great economic and social projects of Joe Biden “will be more important for the Americans than Afghanistan in six months”.
On condition that parliamentarians go to the end of the adoption procedure, already well underway, gigantic plans for the renovation of infrastructure and the development of Joe Biden’s welfare state, the cumulative amount of which could flirt with 5,000 billion dollars .
David Karol, professor of political science at the University of Maryland, would also be “really very surprised that the presidential election of 2024 is played on Afghanistan”.
“The idea that this is the end of the Biden presidency is greatly exaggerated,” he said.
He recalls that Ronald Reagan was triumphantly re-elected a year after the death of 241 Americans in 1983 in an attack in Beirut, where they participated, at the initiative of the Republican president, in an international peacekeeping mission.
Other observers, such as James Jay Carafano, an expert on security issues at the very conservative Heritage Foundation think tank, on the contrary assure that Afghanistan “will poison to the end” the tenure of the 78-year-old Democrat.
– “The economy, fool” –
In any case, the Biden presidency, which before the lightning victory of the Taliban gave the impression of a well-oiled machine, has been permanently shaken.
Many of the mainstream American media, which hailed Donald Trump’s defeat, and which chronicled with a certain benevolence the first months of the Biden administration, were ruthless in the face of America’s humiliation at the end of the longest of its wars.
Some members of the president’s close guard, such as his national security adviser Jake Sullivan, could be permanently weakened, and the very unilateral management of the withdrawal from Afghanistan will leave traces with international allies.
It is therefore scrutinized much more closely that the White House will move towards the mid-term elections of autumn 2022, which must renew the House of Representatives and a third of the Senate.
The Biden administration, which has only an extremely thin parliamentary majority, has “a limited window” to pass its major reforms before this election during which, traditionally, “the president’s party is losing ground”, underlines David Karol , University of Maryland.
If Joe Biden has achieved the feat, in a very divided America, of garnering votes from the Republican opposition for his infrastructure projects, he must also weld the Democratic camp around his pharaonic social spending, the amount of which frightens the most centrist parliamentarians.
He will then remain in the White House to hope that the pandemic, in full resurgence, is extinguished or at least calms down, and that the economic rebound continues, so that the strategy of former President Bill Clinton is verified.
David Lichtman recalls that the Democrat won in 1992 over George Bush, “perhaps our greatest president in international relations”, by mobilizing his campaign team around this slogan: what matters is is “the economy, stupid”.