The Battle of Taipei Mayor at the end of the year has attracted attention from all walks of life. According to the latest poll by China Times, Chen Shizhong, a candidate for the Democratic Progressive Party, is 24.2%, Jiang Wanan, a candidate for the Kuomintang, is 23.9%, and Huang Shanshan, who is supported by the People’s Party, is 22.2%. In this regard, Cai Zhengyuan, the former deputy secretary-general of the Kuomintang, analyzed the results of the two elections in 2014 and 2018 and asserted that Jiang Ke won 650,000 votes, Chen 550,000 votes, and Huang 200,000 votes in this election, and emphasized that Jiang and Chen should be able to win the vote again. This number is higher, but limited.
“China Times” released the latest poll of the mayor of Taipei on the 18th. Chen Shizhong won the championship with 24.2%, Jiang Wanan ranked second with 23.9%, and Huang Shanshan with 22.2%. The gap between the three was within the margin of error.
Cai Zhengyuan said in an interview with the Hong Kong media “China Review Press” today (19) that the poll did not reflect the structure of voters, so it would not be the structure of the final election. Judging from the previous voter structure, the general environment in 2014 was very bad. The Kuomintang’s winning streak could still get 609,000 votes (40.82% of the votes); in 2018, Ke Wenzhe had the incumbent advantage, and the Kuomintang’s Ding Shouzhong was weak in the election. 577,000 votes (40.8% of the votes).
Cai Zhengyuan said bluntly that, looking at the above, he does not think that the voter structure in the Taipei mayoral election this year has changed. For the Kuomintang mayoral candidates in Taipei, especially Jiang Wanan, it should not be a problem to get 650,000 votes. Cai predicts that Jiang will get 650,000 votes, Chen Shizhong 550,000 votes, Huang Shanshan 200,000 votes, and both Jiang and Chen may have a little more votes, but the number should be limited.