Home » Economy » “After the energy market”, the existing vaccine may not be enough!The biggest one-month drop since the outbreak of the crude oil innovation crown | Anue Juheng-Energy

“After the energy market”, the existing vaccine may not be enough!The biggest one-month drop since the outbreak of the crude oil innovation crown | Anue Juheng-Energy

In trading on Tuesday (30th), crude oil futures prices closed sharply lower, setting the largest single-month drop since March 2020. The reason was that Modena CEO Stéphane Bancel warned that existing vaccines are fighting the Omicron variant virus. I am afraid that the effect of the above is relatively low, putting crude oil prices under pressure again.

  • WTI crude oil futures for January delivery fell 3.77 DollarOr 5.4%, 66.18 per barrel Dollar

According to Dow Jones market data,WTI’s recent monthly futures prices fell nearly 21% this month, And hit the lowest closing price since August 23.

  • The price of Brent crude oil futures for January delivery fell 2.87 DollarOr 3.9%, 70.57 per barrel DollarFell more than 16% this month. The futures will close today.
  • Brent crude oil futures for February delivery fell 3.99 DollarOr nearly 5.5%, at 69.23 per barrel Dollar. The futures are converted to the most recent month contract.

In recent months, WTI and recent Brent crude oil futures both recorded the largest monthly decline and decline in value since March last year. In March last year, the WHO announced the month of the COVID-19 pandemic, and WTI crude oil fell into the negative price area in April last year.

Robbie Fraser, Schneider Electric’s global research and analysis manager, pointed out in the daily newspaper: “COVID-19 has once again become the core of the loss of crude oil and other commodities. This time it is related to the uncertainty brought about by the newly discovered Omicron variant virus.”

Modena Chief Executive Officer Stéphane Bancel said in an interview with the Financial Times that the effectiveness of existing vaccines against the Omicron variant virus may be low. This remark immediately caused crude oil futures to plummet, and global stock markets fell again.

Commodities analyst Carsten Fritsch said: “This worries the public that the movement restrictions implemented to combat the Omicron variant virus may have far-reaching impact. However, it is not yet possible to accurately predict how much this will affect oil demand.”

Rystad Energy senior oil market analyst Louise Dickson said that the threat to oil demand is real. “Another wave of blockade may reduce oil demand by as much as 3 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2022, because countries put health and safety as a priority, which is more important than economic restart plans, from Australia’s postponement of restart to Japan’s blockade of countries. All are clear evidence of this.”

After the Omicron variant virus was discovered in southern Africa last Friday, crude oil plummeted. The benchmark US stock index fell 13%, and several countries immediately restricted flights from the region. Although crude oil rebounded on Monday and closed slightly higher, it was again under pressure afterwards.

The drop in oil prices and the impact of the Omicron variant virus on tourism and activities have caused OPEC+ to suspend its production increase plan to relax its production quota of 400,000 barrels per day in January.

OPEC+ is also evaluating the impact of the 50 million barrels of strategic petroleum reserves (SPR) released by the United States last week, and five countries, including China and India, are also following up on the release of SPR.

Christian Busken, Head of Physical Assets of the Fund Evaluation Group, said: “The biggest surprise or result this week will be whether OPEC will reduce production in response to the new variant of the virus. If this is the case of the Biden government (wants to lower oil prices) against OPEC (benefiting from high oil prices). In the battle of oil prices, OPEC currently has an absolute advantage.”

OPEC expects to hold technical meetings via video on Wednesday and Thursday, followed by an OPEC + ministerial meeting on Thursday.

Fritsch believes that based on the latest developments in the market, it is “unimaginable” that OPEC+ will stick to the established 400,000 barrels/day production increase plan.

He said that the US plan to release SPR has determined that it will increase the supply in January and February by approximately 850,000 barrels per day, which will leave OPEC+ no choice but to suspend its production increase plan for two months.

Other energy commodity trading
  • The price of gasoline futures for December delivery fell 4.7% to close at 1.98 per gallon Dollar, Fell nearly 20% this month.
  • The price of hot fuel oil futures for December delivery fell 4.1% to close at 2.064 per gallon Dollar, Which fell more than 17% this month.

The above-mentioned futures for delivery in December will close today.

  • The price of natural gas futures for January delivery fell 5.9% to close at 4.567 per million Btu Dollar, Which fell nearly 16% this month. .

Christin Redmond, a commodity analyst at Schneider Electric, said: “Strong production growth and mild weather prospects in December have become the main driving force for natural gas prices.” The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts that in the next 6 to 10 days, Temperatures in most parts of the United States will be higher than normal.

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