After the referendums, what will happen to the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine?

Russia After the referendums held in 4 Ukrainian regions, adding "Russia’s recognition of the results of the false referendums as normal, the implementation of the Crimea scenario in these regions, and the attempt to annex Ukrainian lands to it, all of this we do not have to negotiate with.".

Throughout the six stages of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, the recognition of the independence of the republics of Donetsk and Lugansk in eastern Ukraine was one of the most important conditions Moscow In the talks, a major point of contention between the two parties to the conflict.

And now, after Russia has announced its support for the four Ukrainian regions to join it, a question arises about the fate of Negotiations.

tipping the balance of Russia

The results of the referendums give a moral boost to Russia and its loyalists in the four Ukrainian regions, especially as these regions join Crimea, which voted with the same result in 2014.

• On September 23, Russia announced that referendums would be held in Donetsk, Luhansk andKherson and Zaporozhye, eastern Ukraine, to vote to join Moscow.
• On September 27, the pro-Moscow authorities in Kherson announced that 87.05 percent of voters supported joining Russia.
• In Zaporizhia, 93.11 percent of voters voted in favor of joining Russia.
• Voters in Lugansk supported 98.42 percent of the idea of ​​association with Moscow.
• Donetsk’s result was a vote of 94.75 percent in favor of joining Russia.

Before the referendum

before result PollsMoscow issued direct warnings to Ukraine and the West to urge the importance of returning to negotiations. In return, the United States and Ukraine did not respond to it, while Europe adopted a policy of appeasement.

• In early September, Russian President Vladimir PutinUkraine is responsible for obstructing the resumption of negotiations and reaching an agreement to stop the fighting.
• On September 5, Russia indicated that relations with the West could return to normal at some point through negotiation.
• On September 11, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei LavrovHis country does not refuse to conduct any negotiations with Ukraine.
• On September 12, stressed Zelensky However, it is impossible to negotiate an end to the war, and he does not trust Russia.
• On the same day, the deputy head of the Russian Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev, emphasized that the ultimatums are just a simple prelude to what will be required in the future, namely Kyiv’s total surrender to Moscow’s terms.
• On September 13, the European Union Commissioner for Foreign and Security Policy Josep Borrell urged, Ukraineto start negotiations as soon as possible with Russia.
• On September 22, French President Emmanuel MacronOn the need to stick to Ukraine’s help to protect its territory and not to attack Russia, and that Europe is not at war with Moscow.
• On September 23, the Russian Foreign Ministry indicated that the United States is unable to negotiate, and is pushing Kyiv to cooperate with London To transfer military operations to the Russian territory.

Negotiation path

In response to a question: Are negotiations going back again, the expert in international relations, Abdul Masih Al-Shami, says that negotiations today have become more complex and difficult than ever for two reasons:

• The first reason relates to the fact that the criterion for returning to negotiation is the battlefield, and according to the recent developments of Ukrainian progress in the south and east, and Russia’s approach to announcing the annexation of the four Ukrainian regions, confirms that the point of reaching a political solution and returning to the negotiating table is still far away.
• The second reason is that the decision rests with the West, in particular United State And Britain, who are not keen on negotiating, and the previous rounds were only media consumption. The US-British approach follows the military option by pumping money and weapons to Kiev, and is more inclined to war than appeasement.
• Al-Shami explained in his speech to the site "Sky News Arabia"that the only party in the West that wants to negotiate, because it is the most affected by the war, is EuropeDespite providing support to Kiev at the military and political levels, it has no interest in prolonging the war, because its consequences become catastrophic for it.
• He adds: "Despite Europe’s efforts to resume negotiations, the referendums make it more pessimistic about the seriousness of the return of talks with Russia".

Negotiation rules

• The result of the polls becomes "saw knot" At the negotiating points, the Ukrainian provinces became Russian territory from Moscow’s point of view and outside the debate in NegotiationsAt the same time, the West does not recognize the result, according to Al-Shami, who stresses the difference in the rules of the game between the two parties and their distance from points of understanding.
• The US ambassador to United nations Linda Thomas Greenfield, presenting her country and Albania a draft resolution to the Security Council to condemn Russia for the referendums in 4 regions of Ukraine.
• German Chancellor Olaf Schulz stressed that his country does not recognize the results referendumThe European Union has hinted at imposing sanctions on observers from EU countries on the referendums, describing it as illegal.

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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said his country could not negotiate with Russia After the referendums organized in 4 Ukrainian regions, he added, “Russia’s recognition of the results of the false referendums as normal and the implementation of the Crimea scenario in these regions, and the attempt to annex Ukrainian lands to them, all this we do not have to negotiate with.”

Throughout the six stages of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, the recognition of the independence of the republics of Donetsk and Lugansk in eastern Ukraine was one of the most important conditions Moscow In the talks, a major point of contention between the two parties to the conflict.

And now, after Russia has announced its support for the four Ukrainian regions to join it, a question arises about the fate of Negotiations.

tipping the balance of Russia

The results of the referendums give a moral boost to Russia and its loyalists in the four Ukrainian regions, especially as these regions join Crimea, which voted with the same result in 2014.

• On September 23, Russia announced that referendums would be held in Donetsk, Luhansk andKherson and Zaporozhye, eastern Ukraine, to vote to join Moscow.
• On September 27, the pro-Moscow authorities in Kherson announced that 87.05 percent of voters supported joining Russia.
• In Zaporizhia, 93.11 percent of voters voted in favor of joining Russia.
• Voters in Lugansk supported 98.42 percent of the idea of ​​association with Moscow.
• Donetsk’s result was a vote of 94.75 percent in favor of joining Russia.

Before the referendum

before result PollsMoscow issued direct warnings to Ukraine and the West to urge the importance of returning to negotiations. In return, the United States and Ukraine did not respond to it, while Europe adopted a policy of appeasement.

• In early September, Russian President Vladimir PutinUkraine is responsible for obstructing the resumption of negotiations and reaching an agreement to stop the fighting.
• On September 5, Russia indicated that relations with the West could return to normal at some point through negotiation.
• On September 11, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei LavrovHis country does not refuse to conduct any negotiations with Ukraine.
• On September 12, stressed Zelensky However, it is impossible to negotiate an end to the war, and he does not trust Russia.
• On the same day, the deputy head of the Russian Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev, emphasized that the ultimatums are just a simple prelude to what will be required in the future, namely Kyiv’s total surrender to Moscow’s terms.
• On September 13, the European Union Commissioner for Foreign and Security Policy Josep Borrell urged, Ukraineto start negotiations as soon as possible with Russia.
• On September 22, French President Emmanuel MacronOn the need to stick to Ukraine’s help to protect its territory and not to attack Russia, and that Europe is not at war with Moscow.
• On September 23, the Russian Foreign Ministry indicated that the United States is unable to negotiate, and is pushing Kyiv to cooperate with London To transfer military operations to the Russian territory.

Negotiation path

In response to a question: Are negotiations going back again, the expert in international relations, Abdul Masih Al-Shami, says that negotiations today have become more complex and difficult than ever for two reasons:

• The first reason relates to the fact that the criterion for returning to negotiation is the battlefield, and according to the recent developments of Ukrainian progress in the south and east, and Russia’s approach to announcing the annexation of the four Ukrainian regions, confirms that the point of reaching a political solution and returning to the negotiating table is still far away.
• The second reason is that the decision rests with the West, in particular United State And Britain, who are not keen on negotiating, and the previous rounds were only media consumption. The US-British approach follows the military option by pumping money and weapons to Kiev, and is more inclined to war than appeasement.
• In his interview with Sky News Arabia, Al-Shami explained that the only party in the West that wants to negotiate, because it is the most affected by the war, is EuropeDespite providing support to Kiev at the military and political levels, it has no interest in prolonging the war, because its consequences become catastrophic for it.
• He added: “Despite Europe’s efforts to resume negotiations, the referendums make it more pessimistic about the seriousness of the return of talks with Russia.”

Negotiation rules

• The result of the referendums becomes the “saw knot” at the negotiating points. The Ukrainian provinces have become Russian territory from Moscow’s point of view and outside the debate in NegotiationsAt the same time, the West does not recognize the result, according to Al-Shami, who stresses the difference in the rules of the game between the two parties and their distance from points of understanding.
• The US ambassador to United nations Linda Thomas Greenfield, presenting her country and Albania a draft resolution to the Security Council to condemn Russia for the referendums in 4 regions of Ukraine.
• German Chancellor Olaf Schulz stressed that his country does not recognize the results referendumThe European Union has hinted at imposing sanctions on EU-state observers of the referendums, describing it as illegal.