Ambiguous “Minsk Agreement”, Why Russia Doesn’t Give Up in Ukraine-QuickTake-Bloomberg

France and Germany were involved with the support of the United States while Russian President Vladimir Putin was rallying his troops near the Ukrainian border.Minsk agreementIs the greatest opportunity for a diplomatic solution. However, the agreement is complex and controversial, and also touches upon the roots of the struggle for Ukrainian identity and sovereignty. The Russian side has repeatedly stated that it has no intention of invading Ukraine, but the United States and other Western countries have not been wary of possible attacks.

1. Background of the conclusion of the Minsk Agreement

The Minsk Agreement was signed with the aim of stopping the military clash that broke out in 2014 in eastern Ukraine. The circumstances leading up to the dispute are as follows. Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, who was a pro-Russian sect, has forgotten to sign a trade agreement with the European Union (EU) under Putin’s pressure. Citizens angry at this situation gave a large-scale demonstration in the capital Kiev, and the Yanukovych administration resigned. However, protests once morest the subsequent new administration also took place in eastern and southern Ukraine. Russian-backed separatist militants dominated the eastern provinces of Donetsk and Lugansk during this period. According to Ukraine, which has put troops into these two states, Russian troops directly intervened in the fighting and hit the Ukrainian troops decisively (Russia denied involvement). The agreement aimed at resolving this dispute is the Minsk agreement signed in the capital of neighboring Belarus, Minsk.

2. Contents of the Minsk Agreement

“Minsk 1” signed in September 2014 consists of 12 items. Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), Suspension surveillance, provisional special status grants to separatist-controlled areas, local elections, and amnesty of the parties. However, the ceasefire agreement was completely broken in January 2015, and a month later, “Minsk 2” was put together. The new agreement consists of 13 items. The content is more detailed than 1, but the wording regarding problem-solving procedures and political requirements is as confusing as 1.

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3. Why is it so difficult to fulfill?

One problem is that Russia takes the position that it is not a party to the conflict and is therefore not responsible for its performance. However, Russia is negotiating to reach the Minsk agreement, and the Ukrainian side claims that Russia has a performance obligation. To make the situation even more difficult, the Minsk Agreement amends the Ukrainian Constitution, providing a special status for Donbas (Donetsk and Lugansk). Moreover, it is necessary to do so “by consultation and agreement” with the leaders of the “Donetsk People’s Republic” and “Lugansk People’s Republic”, which are effectively controlled by pro-Russian factions. Also, the biggest issue is that the range of areas to which special status is granted has not been determined. Secession leaders argue that the entire province of Donetsk and Lugansk should be included. The Ukrainian government still has more than half of the two states under its jurisdiction, but will let go of it.

Firing Line

Cease-fire violations in Ukraine’s Donbas have declined in recent years

Source: OSCE Special Monitoring Mission

4. Interpretation on the Russian side

Russia believes that Ukraine has signed the Minsk agreement and that it is obliged to fulfill it. While returning the Donbas region to the jurisdiction of the Ukrainian government, he argued that the safety and rights of the inhabitants of the region should be guaranteed. About 700,000 people living in the area are now issued with Russian passports, which is estimated to be 20-40% of the population. The Kremlin also sees the agreement as a means of granting broad autonomy to the Donbas region and federalizing Ukraine, and if it does, it will be a Western country such as the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the EU. We believe that it will be virtually impossible to join the institution.

5. Interpretation on the Ukrainian side

Ukraine has passed the law on “decentralization” required by the Minsk Agreement. However, in the process, it did not negotiate with separatists, which the country considers to represent the Russian government.Russia accepts for that reasonrejectionis doing.Ukraine’s Secretary of State Security and Defense Council, Danilov, told The Associated Press in January that it would destroy the state if it implemented the Minsk agreement “signed while being struck by Russia.”Stated

6. Is it possible to resolve the situation?

It may be more difficult for Ukraine to implement the Minsk Agreement in a way that is acceptable to the Russian government than to promise not to join NATO. In the 15 years of limited implementation, violent protests took place in Kiev. Held in December 2009pollAccording to the report, 75% of the people answered that the Minsk agreement should be amended or abandoned. Only 12% said they should do it.

Original title:Why Minsk Accords Are Murky Path for Ukraine Peace: QuickTake(excerpt)

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