American election: at what time will we know the first results?

•• First alert: 1 a.m. (French time)••

What, who, where. Polling stations close in the first 6 states: Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vermont and Virginia.

Four years ago. Donald Trump was declared victorious almost immediately in Indiana and Kentucky, while Hillary Clinton’s victory was declared immediately in Vermont.

The forecasts. Trump’s victory is expected in several of these very Republican states.

What is important. The results are in Georgia, where Trump beat Clinton 5.1% in 2016 and where Biden leads tonight in the polls.


And immediately Follow election night

Georgia, 16 electors (out of a national total of 538)

What do the polls say? Joe Biden leads there by 1.1 points but four years ago the difference between the polls and the vote result was 1.1%.

Where are we tonight? 3,912,819 early and postal votes were recorded (94.4% of total participation in 2016) and analysts predict that this time there will be 5,306,000 voters, 28% more than there are four years.

Winner in 2016. Trump.


Indiana (11 major voters)

What do the polls say? Trump leads by 10.9 points.

Where are we tonight? 1,711,425 early and postal votes were recorded (62% of the total participation in 2016) and this time the forecasts give 3,064,000 total voters, 11% more than four years ago.

Winner in 2016. Trump.


Kentucky (8 voters)

What do the polls say? Trump leads by 15.7 points.

Where are we tonight? 1,507,983 advance and postal votes were recorded (62.3% of the total participation in 2016) and the forecasts this time give 2,329,000 voters in total, 21% more than four years ago.

Winner in 2016: Trump.


South Carolina (9 voters)

What do the polls say? Trump leads by 7.1 points.

Where are we tonight? 1,309,603 early and postal votes were recorded (78.4% of the total participation in 2016) and the forecasts this time give 2,544,000 total voters, 21% more than four years ago.

Winner in 2016: Trump.


Vermont (3 major voters)

What do the polls say? Biden leads by 38.7 points.

Where are we tonight? 235,301 early and postal votes were recorded (74.7% of the total participation in 2016) and the forecasts this time give 354,000 voters in total, 12.4% more than four years ago.

Winner in 2016: Clinton.


Virginie (13 major voters)

What do the polls say? Biden leads by 11.8 points

Where are we tonight? 2,744,038 early and postal votes were recorded (68.9% of the total participation in 2016) and the forecasts this time give 4,733,000 voters in total, 18.8% more than four years ago .

Winner in 2016: Clinton.


••Second alert: 1:30 a.m. (French time)••

What, who, where? Polling stations are closing in North Carolina, Ohio and West Virginia.

Four years ago. Donald Trump has been declared victorious in these 3 states.

Predictions: more for Trump, but some polls show Biden victorious in the most important of those states, North Carolina.

What is important : wait for the real count, because the advance votes will be immediate and could create an illusion of victory for Biden. Such is the significance of a possible move from North Carolina to Democrats that even if Biden loses in Florida and Pennsylvania, he could become president if he wins that state.


Ohio (18 voters)

What do the polls say? Trump leads by 0.7 points.

Where are we tonight? 3,411,463 advance and postal votes were recorded (61.6% of the total participation in 2016) and the forecasts this time give 6,413,000 voters in total, 15.8% more than four years ago .

Winner in 2016: Trump, 8.1% ahead


North Carolina (15 major voters)

What do the polls say? Biden leads by 1.8 points.

Where are we tonight? 4,550,963 advance and postal votes were recorded (96% of the total participation in 2016) and the forecasts this time give 5,947,000 voters in total, 25.4% more than four years ago.

Winner in 2016: Trump with 3.6 points ahead, as the polls gave Clinton victorious.


West Virginia (5 Grand Voters)

What do the polls say? Trump leads by 28.6 points.

Where are we tonight? 389,281 early and postal votes were recorded (54% of the total participation in 2016) and the forecasts this time give 784,000 voters in total, 8.7% more than four years ago.

Winner in 2016: Trump with 41.7 points ahead.

Early voting on October 29 in Dunwoody, Georgia. Photo Brynn Anderson. AP


••Third alert: 2 a.m.••

What, who, where? Polling stations close in Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Washington DC, Florida, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Oklahoma, in Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and Tennessee.

Four years ago. The publication of the results in Florida, a little before 3 a.m., had sounded the death knell for Hillary Clinton’s presidential hopes. And yet, TV channels continued to describe her as the future president even after Donald Trump was declared the winner in most counties in Florida.

The forecasts. Completely hazardous, as the national polls have difficulty projecting into many of these swing states.

What is important : Pennsylvania, but if the early vote count should be ready very quickly, today’s vote count could take a week. Suddenly, Florida could once again be the decisive state.


Alabama (9 voters)

What do the polls say? Trump leads by 19.6 points.

Where are we tonight? 300,402 advance and postal votes were recorded (14.1% of the total participation in 2016) and the forecasts this time give 2,405,000 voters in total, 13.3% more than four years ago.

Winner in 2016: Trump with a 27.7 point lead.


Connecticut (7 major voters)

What do the polls say? Biden leads by 26.2 points.

Where are we tonight? 595,009 advance and postal votes were recorded (36.2% of the total participation in 2016) and the forecasts this time give 1,846,000 voters in total, 12.2% more than four years ago.

Winner in 2016: Clinton with 13.6 points ahead.


Delaware (3 major voters)

What do the polls say? Biden leads by 24.3 points.

Where are we tonight? 156,259 advance and postal votes were recorded (35.2% of the total participation in 2016) and the forecasts this time give 496,000 voters in total, 11.8% more than four years ago.

Winner in 2016: Clinton with 11.4% points ahead


Washington DC (3 grand voters)

What do the polls say? Biden leads by 85 points.

Where are we tonight? 260,071 advance and postal votes were recorded (83.6% of the total participation in 2016) and the forecasts this time give 350,000 voters in total, 124% more than four years ago.

Winner in 2016: Clinton with 86.8 points ahead.


Florida (29 voters)

What do the polls say? Biden leads by 2.5 points.

Where are we tonight? 8,974,896 advance and postal votes were recorded (94.4% of the total participation in 2016) and the forecasts this time give 11,587,000 voters in total, 21.9% more than four years ago.

Winner in 2016: Trump with a 1.2 point lead.


Illinois (20 grand voters)

What do the polls say? Biden leads by 16 points.

Where are we tonight? 3,591,646 advance and postal votes were recorded (64.2% of the total participation in 2016) and the forecasts this time give 8,623,000 voters in total, 54.1% more than four years ago.

Winner in 2016: Clinton, with a 16.9 point lead.


Maine (4 major voters)

What do the polls say? Biden leads by 13 points.

Where are we tonight? 499,931 advance and postal votes were recorded (66.8% of the total participation in 2016) and the forecasts this time give 860,000 voters in total, 15% more than four years ago.

Winner in 2016. Clinton, 3 points ahead.


Maryland (10 major voters)

What are the polls saying? Biden leads by 31.5 points.

Where are we tonight? 2,169,942 advance and postal votes were recorded (78% of the total participation in 2016) and the forecasts this time give 3,127,000 voters in total, 12.4% more than four years ago.

Winner in 2016: Clinton, 26.4 points ahead.


Massachusetts (11 major voters)

What do the polls say? Biden leads by 35.7 points.

Where are we tonight? 2,342,656 advance and postal votes were recorded (70.5% of the total participation in 2016) and this time the forecasts give 3,724,000 voters in total, 12% more than four years ago.

Winner in 2016: Clinton, 27.2 points ahead


Mississippi (6 major voters)

What do the polls say? Trump leads by 15.9 points.

Where are we tonight? 231,031 advance and postal votes were recorded (19.1% of the total participation in 2016) and the forecasts this time give 1,417,000 voters in total, 17% more than four years ago.

Winner in 2016: Trump, par 17,8%.


Missouri (10 major voters)

What do the polls say? Trump leads by 8 points.

Where are we tonight? 827,978 advance and postal votes were recorded (29.3% of the total participation in 2016) and the forecasts this time give 3,130,000 voters in total, 10.7% more than four years ago.

Winner in 2016: Trump, par 18,5%


New Hampshire (4 major voters)

What do the polls say? Biden leads by 11.1 points.

Where are we tonight? 181,577 early and postal votes were recorded (24.4% of the total participation in 2016) and the forecasts this time give 851,000 voters in total, 14.3% more than four years ago.

Winner in 2016: Clinton, by 0.4%

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