ANALYSIS / DZ: Corona vaccines a 217 billion dollar market – many profiteers

FRANKFURT (dpa-AFX) – Vaccines are the great hope in the fight against the corona virus. For their developers, a market niche emerged overnight in spring 2020, which promises billions in revenue and which now has to be filled with major challenges. Measured against the world population and the partial need for multiple vaccinations, DZ Bank estimates in a study presented at the end of May that around 6.6 billion vaccine doses will be required worldwide in 2021 and even more in 2022 with almost ten billion.

In their study, the DZ-Bank experts calculated a market volume of 93 billion US dollars for the “Western” companies based on the production commitments and vaccine prices. This cake has so far been divided between four approved vaccines from these companies: The Mainz company Biontech as a pioneer with its novel mRNA technology, which the US competitor Moderna also relies on, as well as the vector vaccines from Astrazeneca and Johnson & Johnson.

In 2022, if, for example, other vaccines should be established by companies such as Curevac or Novavax, the DZ experts expect the market volume to rise to 217 billion dollars. In addition to the high global demand, they also expect a price surge as soon as the World Health Organization (WHO) declares the pandemic to be over. Then AstraZeneca in particular would no longer be bound to a sale at cost, which was previously the case because of a license agreement with the University of Oxford as the actual vaccine developer.

Because of the permanent nature of the coronavirus and the need to refresh it, the experts present the prospects for investors as rosy in the long term: “From an investor’s point of view, the issue of coronavirus vaccine production could well advance from a ‘flash in the pan’ to a long-running hit.” There are likely to be many profiteers beyond the vaccine developers. “Overall, according to our research, more than ten companies are involved in the production of the Biontech vaccine,” it said. AstraZeneca has built a global supply network with more than 25 production facilities in 15 countries.

In their study, the experts see the Biontech partner Pfizer as a top recommendation, but also the Darmstadt-based chemical company Merck KGaA, which plays a key role in the supply chain. Fair values ​​of 48 US dollars and 170 euros respectively promise a price potential of 15 and 24 percent for these two stocks. Necessary lipid nanoparticles come from Merck, which Evonik also provides as a further beneficiary in the supply chain.

The laboratory equipment supplier Sartorius, the packaging manufacturer Gerresheimer and various production partners of the mRNA vaccine researchers were also named in the study. In addition to the well-known Biontech alliance with Pfizer, Bayer is a particularly close partner of Curevac. In addition, many contract manufacturing companies such as Rentschler Biopharma or Wacker Chemie are involved with their capacities in order to quickly increase the range of mRNA vaccines.

As the DZ Bank study goes on to say, companies such as Bayer, Evonik, Gerresheimer and Wacker Chemie each play key roles, but the impact on corporate earnings is less than that of the top investment recommendations Pfizer and Merck KGaA. Pfizer covers a not inconsiderable part of the added value itself, Merck is an important supplier with its lipids – regardless of the type of vaccine ./tih/ajx/he

Publication of the original study: May 26, 2021 / 10:26 / CEST First distribution of the original study: May 26, 2021 / 10:38 / CEST

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