Productivity drops. For 3 years, since the health crisis, this is what a Dares investigation revealed. It lost 3% per head in the third quarter of 2022, compared to 2019. Hourly productivity also fell by 2.9% last year. A phenomenon in reverse of recent years in France, since for almost 10 years, it has been continuously progressing.
1/ Learning
Over 800,000 apprentices last year. This record figure is the result of the government’s proactive policy since 2018. In addition to the reform which has made the system more flexible, the executive pays bonuses to encourage companies to employ a work-study worker. These bonuses of 6,000 euros for each hire are maintained until the end of the five-year term. The government’s objective is to reach one million work-study students each year.
This is good news for unemployment – INSEE estimates that the success of work-study explains almost a third of the drop in unemployment in recent months – but a little less for our productivity. Indeed, it takes more time for an inexperienced young person to accomplish a task than for a more experienced worker. This question of productivity also arises at the end of a career. If seniors remain in employment longer after the pension reform, there is a risk that productivity will decline.
2/ labor retentions
Currently, companies tend to keep their workforce even though the order book is filling up more slowly and activity is slowing down. For fear of having too much difficulty finding skills when there are strong tensions on the job market. This is the case, for example, of aeronautics or the automobile industry.
3/ less moonlighting
Darès notes a drop in concealed work. To benefit from state aid, or from schemes such as partial unemployment, employees and employers alike have an interest in being in good standing. Also the Covid epidemic, she pushed them to declare themselves. More formerly illegal workers have therefore entered the workforce, seeing themselves regularized, without the creation of value being increased.
4/ Fewer posted workers
With the Covid, but also the war in Ukraine, geographical mobility has been disrupted. What resulted according to the Dares “A substitution of resident workers for posted workers who have returned to live in their country of origin.” This is particularly the case in seasonal and agricultural jobs. »
5/ more sick leave
The pandemic has triggered a wave of sick leave. Here again, these people declared on sick leave have by definition not worked while remaining counted in the company workforce. Even today, with the long Covid, sick leave continues.
6/ too little training
Since 2019, around 10% fewer workers have entered training. Most courses are awarded to job seekers or students. This means that the other assets in the company are no longer progressing. In fact, training is an undeniable guarantee of productivity.
7/ The creation of less productive jobs
Job creations in recent months have mainly been made in service sectors, in particular personal services – home employment, deliveries, etc. – which generate less value than in industry. Moreover, these creations have rather taken place in less qualified sectors. In fact, their productivity is low.
According to the Dares study, these trends should be closely monitored. Indeed, they can be disturbing. Because they could in fact explain the persistence of sluggish growth. And then, in full discussion around the pension reform, remember that all the assumptions of the Pensions Guidance Council rely on an increase in productivity. Its decline could then complicate the equation a little more to balance the regime.