Are Credit Suisse and UBS really merging? The stock exchange is giving the rumors credit: the shares of the two big banks move to the top of the SMI stocks in early trading on Monday – and remain there until the stock market closes. The UBS share is up a good 2 percent, the CS share even more than 4 percent.
Banking experts like Manuel Ammann (50) from the University of St. Gallen are much more sober: “The rumor about a merger of UBS and CS pops up regularly,” says Ammann to VIEW. What is behind the rumor is difficult to find out. “I struggle to understand the industrial logic of such a merger. From my point of view, that doesn’t make sense. ”
It shouldn’t work out
This time, an online portal with often intimate knowledge of the financial center started the rumor: UBS board of directors Axel Weber is planning a merger with CS president Urs Rohner, wrote the finance portal «Inside Paradeplatz». According to the report, the merger should be agreed in early 2021, and at the end of 2021 Switzerland would have a new financial giant.
UBS and CS did not want to comment on the speculations at the request of the news agency AWP. “Necessity makes fusionist”, however, commented a market observer on the speculation.
Ammann does the math: “The hope in every merger: That 1 plus 1 results in more than 2. In the event of a merger between UBS and CS, however, the chances would be good that this calculation would not work out, i.e. 1 plus 1 would not even result in 2. ” The banking expert is convinced that the merger of UBS and CS would create such a complex company that a merger would cause many business problems.
In addition, many customers of the two big companies are likely to migrate to the competition. That means: Cantonal banks or the Raiffeisen cooperatives benefit from the merger.
Ammann is convinced that the authorities should not just wave through the new banking giant: “The hurdles for a merger of the two big banks are high – the bank would have to meet tough conditions, especially in the areas of competition and systemic risks.”
This means that the banking regulator Finma would probably fear a cluster risk for the financial center. The Comco Competition Commission would have something to object to the banking giant’s market power.