before the start of the school year, the epidemic slows down in France

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An infected person now infects less than one individual on average, but the re-entry could reverse the trend.


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An infected person now infects less than one individual on average, but the re-entry could reverse the trend.


“The circulation of the virus has been steadily decreasing for a few days, of the order of about minus 15% in a week,” said the Minister of Health, Olivier Véran, on Thursday. For the first time since early July, the reproduction rate of Sars-CoV-2 (Effective R) has fallen below 1. Understand: The epidemic has theoretically started to decrease, since an infected person transmits the virus to less than one individual on average. Lagging about three weeks with the contaminations, hospital indicators remain high, with an average of 177 daily critical care admissions over the past seven days and 104 daily deaths.

The British example

So is the peak behind us? If he recognizes the beginning of a “plateau, on the scale of the few days on which we can pass this judgment”, the epidemiologist of Public Health France Daniel Lévy-Bruhl does not advance much further: “The resuming work is likely to reshuffle the cards, we remain very careful. We must remain humble and say that we do not know what will happen in September. ” The example of the United Kingdom, affected before France by this wave, also has something to curb the enthusiasm: after a month of decline, the reproduction rate of the virus went back above 1 last week.

Video: Covid-19 in France: re-entry postponed to September 13 in the West Indies (France 24)

Covid-19 in France: re-entry postponed to September 13 in the West Indies

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Among the factors of doubt, a return to school, at risk. The Delta variant “raises fears of a pediatric epidemic at the start of the school year,” warned the scientific council in a note made public on Friday. According to projections by the Institut Pasteur, those under 12, unvaccinated, could represent half of new infections in September.

Enough to ignite the epidemic, if they contaminate adults not protected by serums. More transmissible, the Indian mutant would also be more dangerous, according to a new British study published in the journal The Lancet Infectious Diseases. Based on the analysis of 43,000 cases of contamination, it suggests that people infected with the Delta variant are twice as likely to be hospitalized as those infected with the Alpha variant.

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