Budget: how the dollar will evolve in the next 3 years

In the meantime, By the end of 2022 the currency would reach $ 124.80 and by 2023 the greenback would reach $ 146.60, always according to the Budget data. The ruling party intends to contract the rate of devaluation over time, in line with a slowdown in price increases, in order to maintain a competitive real exchange rate.

The consulting firms and financial entities that participated in the last Market Expectations Survey (REM) of the Central Bank (BCRA), estimated a dollar at $ 84.3 by the end of 2020. Meanwhile, the projections for December 2021 yielded a value of $ 122 per dollar, a figure well above what the government hopes to achieve.

The economic team led by Martín Guzmán is alarmed by the fact that in recent months the monetary authority lost a significant amount of reserves to sustain the value of the official exchange rate.

Between July and so far in September, the monetary authority shed close to $ 2.7 billion to support the value of the official exchange rate. In this framework, Gross International Reserves fell from US $ 43,408 million to the current US $ 42,433 million, while freely available reserves are estimated to be below US $ 8,000 million.

The latest data from the BCRA, corresponding to July, indicated that almost 4 million people bought dollars for hoarding, for a total of US $ 753 million. Both the number of people and the amount increased by about 20% compared to June and multiplied by 10 compared to February and March, prior to the arrival of the Covid-19 pandemic.

In that sense, AFIP reported this week that it will add a 35% tax on the purchase of “savings dollar”, being able to deduct that amount from the income tax payments.

Additionally, the BCRA formally maintained the quota of US $ 200 but decided that the consumption made with a credit card abroad will be deducted from that quota and will also be subject to the 35% tax.

In presenting the Budget, the Government highlighted that one of its main objectives is “to promote economic recovery with an expansive fiscal policy scheme and a State that plays a fundamental role in protecting the most vulnerable sectors, encouraging the domestic market and boosting growth in production and exports “.


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