The candidates of the CAQ and the PQ are neck and neck in the county of Marie-Victorin, where the race to succeed the mayoress of Longueuil, Catherine Fournier, is likely to be exciting until the very end, according to a Leger poll.
If the election were held today in Marie-Victorin, it is impossible to determine who would emerge victorious at the end of the battle in this PQ castle.
Pierre Nantel of the Parti Québécois and Shirley Dorismond of the Coalition Avenir Québec are both at 33% in the voting intentions.
The Léger firm’s survey conducted between February 6 and 9 with 500 respondents on behalf of the Parti Québécois, including The newspaper got a copy, shows that it will be a very close two-man race, while the by-election has still not been called.
“Today, there is as much chance that the PQ or the CAQ will win the election,” said pollster Jean-Marc Léger, following this highly anticipated sounding.
In 2018, Catherine Fournier, then a PQ, was elected with 31% of the vote against 28% for her CAQ opponent. “It’s a bit of a replica of the last election,” illustrates the president of the Léger firm.
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The riding, which has been PQ almost continuously since its creation in 1981, could pass into the hands of the CAQ a few months before the general election next October.
However, the PQ intends to resist and keep its stronghold, even if its support is weak in the national polls.
At the moment, the notoriety of Pierre Nantel plays an important role, analyzes Jean-Marc Léger, but also the protest vote.
“Notoriety plays a role, but two-thirds of people also vote against the CAQ,” he notes.
“Useful and strategic voting can work in favor of the Parti Québécois. In a partial, the government is first evaluated. »
Moreover, 36% of respondents predict a victory for the PQ, unlike 19% for the CAQ.
“This is one that surprises me. The PQ is not up in the national polls, but in Marie-Victorin the vast majority of voters think that the PQ will win, ”underlines the experienced pollster.
“The other four candidates are people who are anti-CAQ. They are scattered in more marginal formations in Marie-Victorin,” he explains.
Moreover, one of the big differences with the 2018 election is the anticipated performance of Québec solidaire during this partial.
In 2018, the party won 22% of the votes. Today, QS holds only 11% of the voting intentions, tied with the Liberals.
“Québec solidaire is very far behind. At the national level, they are not very high. They are lower than what they obtained in the last elections”, specifies Mr. Léger.
Close behind, Anne Casabonne of the Conservative Party of Quebec collects 8% of intentions.
“He is a person of one cause. It’s like Maxime Bernier at the federal level. These are people who are anti-systems and they are not going to vote. So, between what I measure in the poll and on polling day, I often risk overestimating the PCQ,” says Léger.
INTENTIONS VOTING
– Parti Québécois – Pierre Nantel : 33 %
– Coalition Avenir Québec – Shirley Dorismond : 33 %
– Solidarity Quebec – Shophika Vaithyanathasarma : 11 %
– Quebec Liberal Party – Emilie Nollet : 11 %
– Conservative Party of Quebec – Anne Casabonne : 8 %
– Climate Quebec – Martine Ouellet : 3 %
– Other party: 2 %