Iran has recently suffered humiliating blows: Qassem Soleimani, the commander of the Revolutionary Guards, was killed in January.
After four years of Trump, there is no way out of the chaos in the Middle East in sight. The basic problem remains: even maximum pressure on Tehran did not lead to a change in behavior. An analysis.
When Joe Biden succeeds American President Donald Trump in a few weeks’ time, he too will have to deal with a Middle East that is characterized by great disorder. Major conflicts, some of which overlap, destabilize the region.
There is Iran, which is working on its nuclear armament and not only threatening Israel, but also Saudi Arabia, the rival for regional supremacy. There is the contrast between the United Arab Emirates and Turkey, which is not only fueled by their leaders’ aspirations for great power, but also largely from Ankara’s support for the Islamism of the Muslim Brotherhood. The battlefields are in crumbling states such as Syria, Yemen and Libya, where it is often not armies but proxy who fight each other. The leaders of the states in the region are dominated by a destructive logic of distrust and deterrence – and a constant fear of internal unrest.