A contentious drafting process, fear-mongering proposals, the leftist president’s weakened popularity Gabriel Boric and the “silent vote” largely explain the rejection to the plebiscite Constitution on Sunday in Chileaccording to analysts.
61.9% of voters opposed changing the Constitution in force since the dictatorship of Augusto Pinochet by another that recognized new rights in health, abortion, education, pensions and the environment and consecrated an indigenous “plurinationality”. The proposal was supported by 38.1% of the 13 million voters.
1. Controversial drafting process
The text was written by a 154-member convention that has operated with much controversy since its installation in July 2021. The inaugural session itself was interrupted several times by member protests.
“More than the result of the text itself, what people had been evaluating badly since [hace] several weeks was the way in which this process had developed,” Marco Moreno, an analyst at the Central University, explained to AFP, describing “excesses” and “misconduct by many conventionalists.”
2. Contents of the proposal
The text of 388 articles was considered avant-garde by various analysts, but they warned that it also contained proposals that part of the population considered too radical and generated fear, especially politically.
“There were certain contents within the proposed constitutional text that generated resistance from broad sectors of society and increased levels of fear and uncertainty,” said Marcelo Mella, a political scientist at the University of Santiago.
Mella highlighted above all the change to the political system proposed by the text, which eliminated the Senate and established in its place a Chamber of the Regions to evaluate “regional agreement” laws.
Many saw in this measure the danger of a loss of veto power for the opposition.
Other controversial proposals contained in the text were indigenous “plurinationality”, the right to abortion and considering water and health as human rights.
“It’s very ‘millennial’ a part of the Constitution and those ‘millennial’ values are not the demand of the most traditional part,” said sociologist Marta Lagos.
3. Boric’s poor evaluation
Boricwho took office on March 11, has seen the evaluation of his management drop rapidly to 38%, the same percentage that obtained the “Approve.”
With a very active government and accusations by the opposition of electoral interventionism, the result of the plebiscite was linked to the performance of the president.
“There is an important punishment vote that must be taken into account,” says Moreno.
Following the election results, the president stated that he would make adjustments to his government team in the coming days and invited the opposition to discuss how to channel a new constitutional process.
4. Spiral of silence
All the polls gave the winner ‘Rejection’ but none anticipated the great difference, attributed by analysts to the so-called “spiral of silence,” which occurs when voters do not make their position known to pollsters out of fear or mistrust.
In this case, with compulsory voting and the voting of more than 13 million voters (out of a list of 15 million), it is estimated that the polls and opinion studies did not consider some three million voters.
Nor did any survey or study expect such a high turnout to be registered, close to 80%.
“Practically everyone who had to vote” voted and “that was not in any analysis,” says Moreno.
5. Economic slowdown
After a record growth of 11.7% in 2021, supported by early withdrawals from pension funds and state aid to face the pandemic, the economy of Chile entered a phase of deceleration and high inflation (13% per year).
“When our country decided to open the constitutional process (…) it did not have the level of economic crisis that the country has today. So, the same people can have a risk assessment that is different, changing economic conditions so dramatically “, adds Marcelo Mella. (AFP)