Original title: Strategy｜Quick release of pressure during quiet period, new mainline configuration value increases
[CITIC Securities Research: The pressure of the quiet period quickly releases the new main line configuration value increase]We still maintain the main line configuration logic of the quiet period, in which the monthly dimension can be appropriate for the low valuation and cost-effective defense sectors such as Masukura real estate and insurance, and continue to invest in the chemical industry. , Non-ferrous metals’ strong prosperous pro-cyclical sector configuration, while paying attention to the steel that will benefit the most in the short-term under the theme of “carbon neutrality”. (CITIC Securities Research)
Internal and external liquidity expectations under negative resonancemarketThe pressure is released quickly.First of all, under the general environment of upward fundamentals and inflation expectations, the world continues to tradeMidlandExpected tightening of the reserve policy ahead of schedule. Second, the expected resonance of internal and external liquidity has broken the tight balance of A-share liquidity in the short term. A-shares are generally in a quiet period with bottom and pressure. After the short-term pressure is released, the high-growth financial report is expected to be fulfilled, and large-scale new positions have been issued and are waiting to be built.product, It will also support the market. With the stability of domestic and foreign liquidity expectations, especially the negative feedback expectations of institutional product redemptions and heavy stock adjustments are controlled, market support will become stronger and stronger. The rapid release of pressure in the short-term has also increased the allocation value of the new main line of A-shares during the quiet period.It is recommended that the monthly dimension can be increased appropriatelyBig financeReal estate in,InsuranceUnderestimate the high cost-effective defensive sector; continue the configuration of the strong pro-cyclical sector of the chemical industry and non-ferrous metals; at the same time, focus on the steel that will benefit the most in the short term under the theme of “carbon neutrality” in the short term. The quarterly dimension recommends focusing on the deployment of cost-effective technology security (consumer electronics, semiconductor equipment, information security) and national defense security (military industry) in the “five major security” areas; at the same time, increase the allocation of related industry sectors that were damaged by the epidemic last year, such as auto parts, Home appliances,Tourist Hotel, Aviation, etc.
Market pressure was released under the suppression of liquidity expectations, and the market adjusted significantly on March 8.
The Shanghai Composite IndexFell 2.3% to close at 3421.41 points;Growth Enterprise Market IndexThe number fell by 4.98%,CSI 300The index fell by 3.47%, the Science and Technology 50 Index fell by 4.09%; a total of 972.9 billion yuan was traded in the two cities throughout the day.Hong Kong Stock ConnectThere has been a large outflow of funds going south.
Fundamental and inflation expectations rise, global trading continuesMidlandExpected tightening of the reserve policy ahead of schedule.
Unlike the market’s concern that the current round of U.S. inflation is a trend, Powell and Yellen’s recent speeches both judged that inflation is not enough for the time being, and at the same time indicated that the long-terminterest rateThe upside more reflects the expected recovery of the economy, and boostsEmploymentmake upOutput gapStill ranked in a more important position.
The actual data is that last Friday the US non-agricultural data greatly exceeded expectations, and the Senate passed the $1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus bill on Saturday; at the same time, inflation expectations continued to rise, and the five-year TIPS embodied inflation has risen to 2.43%.These have further exacerbated investors’currencyThe policy is expected to be tightened in advance.in spite ofMidlandReserve officials frequently appeared to giveinterest rateGuidance, but it is clear that market investors’ expectations of US inflation are significantly stronger than the path expected by the Fed.
The world continues to trade expectations of early tightening of Fed policy, and it will take time and conditions for the Fed to finally give clear guidance on the yield curve. 10-year U.S.National debtSince 2021, the uplink has exceeded 50bps, and it is estimated that there will be 20-30bps of uplink space this round, to about 1.7%~1.8%.
The expected resonance of internal and external liquidity has broken the tight balance of A-share liquidity in the short term.
Asian market emerging market countries on March 8BondIt began to be sold off, and the US dollar index continued to rise above 92 at midday, which continued to trigger a “tightening of US dollar liquidity ->Cash flowOut of emerging market countries. Investors are worried about institutionsStockfundThe negative cycle of redemption and dumping of heavy stocks may be further strengthened by the concentrated withdrawal of foreign capital, thus accelerating the sale of heavy stocks of institutions.Northbound funds and domesticPublic offeringFund holdings in heavy holdings have a large overlap. At the end of 2020, 59 of the top 100 heavy holdings of the two overlapped, which increased the resonance in the adjustment process and the decline of “group” stocks. March 8,Northward capitalA substantial net outflow of 8.59 billion yuan (Land Stock Connect), while a substantial net outflow of 13.18 billion Hong Kong dollars in southbound funds (Southbound Stock Connect).
The market pressure in the quiet period is quickly released, and the market support is expected to become stronger after the liquidity is stabilized.。
A-shares have entered a quiet period in the “slow rise trilogy”, which is expected to last for several months. During this period, the economy will continue to show steady improvement, policy stability, and balance of size and style.We previously studied and judged that the market operation is in a state of bottom and pressure, and the recent negative resonance of internal and external liquidity expectations has broken A sharesMarket liquidityThe tight balance leads to the rapid release of pressure, and the support of the market will gradually increase in the future.
On the one hand, the valuation of the heavy warehouse sector of representative institutions has dropped significantly, such asfood and drinkThe PEG of the medical sector has fallen from the previous high of 2.7/1.8 to 2.1/1.4; the scale of the newly issued fund products to be opened in the early stage is still relatively large, and the future will serve as a stabilizer for institutional stocks with sufficient callbacks.
On the other hand, it is expected that the recent concentrated disclosure of annual reports and quarterly reports will correspond to high earnings growth rates. We judge that the earnings growth rates of non-financial sectors will be 31% and 100% in 2020Q4 and 2021Q1 respectively (CSI 800 caliber). Market formationbottomsupport. With the stability of domestic and foreign liquidity expectations, especially the negative feedback expectations of institutional product redemptions and the adjustment of heavy stocks are under control, market support will become stronger and stronger.
The pressure was quickly released in the short term, which increased the value of the new mainline configuration.
We still maintain the configuration logic of the main line during the quiet period, in which the monthly dimension can be appropriately Masukura Real Estate,InsuranceWe will continue to allocate low-value and cost-effective defensive sectors, and continue to configure the strong pro-cyclical sectors of the chemical industry and non-ferrous metals. At the same time, we will pay attention to the steel that will benefit the most in the short term under the theme of “carbon neutrality”. In the quarterly dimension, it is recommended to focus on the cost-effective technology and military industry in the “five major security” areas, and it is recommended to focus on technology security (consumer electronics, semiconductor equipment, information security) and national defense security (military industry), and to increase the relevant Industry sectors, such as auto parts, home appliances,Tourist Hotel, Aviation, etc. It is expected that the rebalancing process after this round of extreme differentiation will end when the procyclical sector adjusts.
The short-term increase in US bond yields exceeded expectations; domestic and foreign institutional funds fell into a wave of redemption; global epidemics repeated and vaccinations fell short of expectations; the overall disclosure of the A-share annual report and the first quarter report was significantly lower than expected.
Market outlook analysis:
(Article Source:CITIC Securitiesthe study)
(Editor in charge: DF398)
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