Confusing KOSPI, foreigners and individuals betting on different indices


[아시아경제 이민지 기자] While the KOSPI is moving around the 2450 line due to interest rate uncertainty and concerns about economic slowdown, foreigners and individuals are continuing a tight tug-of-war by betting on different index directions.

According to the Korea Exchange on the 19th, from the 1st to the 18th of this month, the product that individuals bought the most was ‘KODEX 200 Futures Inverse 2X’, with a total amount of 442.1 billion won. When the KOSPI shows a downward trend, it is a product that produces profits twice as much as the decline, so individuals judged that the KOSPI’s decline was imminent. They also bought 1x inverse products, and the net purchase amount of ‘KODEX Inverse’ products was tallied at 54.6 billion won. As the KOSPI soared more than 8% this month and reached the psychological support level of 2500, individuals predicted that the KOSPI would soon enter a bear market.

Looking at the KOSPI trend in the second half of this year, it has repeatedly risen and fallen without finding a clear direction. The KOSPI, which hovered around the 2700 line in May, fell to the 2300 line in July and seemed to show an upward trend by breaking through the 2500 line the following month, but plunged to the 2100 line in September, bringing disappointment to individuals who were aiming to recover returns.

On the other hand, the fighting spirit of foreigners is quite different. This is because they are actively buying products that bet on the rise of the KOSPI. Foreigners bought KODEX 200 products, which generate profits when the KOSPI rises, second only to LG Energy Solutions (552.9 billion won) and Samsung Electronics (375.5 billion won), with a total amount of 270.2 billion won. As the dollar index, which had been strong since the announcement of the US CPI (Consumer Price Index) in October earlier this month, fell from 114 points to the low 100-point range, it predicted that the supply and demand environment would improve in the short term. Looking at the net purchase flow of institutions, KODEX leveraged products (310.5 billion won) were second only to Samsung Electronics (384 billion won), the largest net purchase item, and KODEX KOSDAQ 150 leverage (155.8 billion won) was also counted as a significant scale. However, it should be borne in mind that institutional investors often purchase stocks for the role of liquidity (LP).

Experts believe that index-directed investment will not give much practical benefit in a situation where interpretations on the direction of the economy and monetary policy are divided. This is because the decline is limited and the rise is limited. Cho Byung-hyun, head of the investment strategy team at Daol Investment & Securities, said, “It is difficult to see the market as a market in which a mid- to long-term upward trend can be formed under the support of the fundamental cycle, and anxiety over future deterioration in demand will increase.” “However, considering interest rate volatility, before October Compared to the situation, it is a favorable situation.”

Reporter Lee Min-ji [email protected]

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