According to calculations by Chinese scientists, if the zero-Covid strategy were completely lifted in China, a “tsunami” wave of infections with 1.55 million deaths could roll over the country. According to their study in the scientific journal “Nature Medicine” there could be 112 million symptomatic infections within six months. The need for intensive care beds would be 15.6 times greater than the capacity.
With their warning, the scientists support the controversial tough Covid policy of the Beijing leadership, but also outline the dilemma and show possible ways out of how the number of dead and sick could be reduced. Vaccination, including boosters and campaigns for older people over 60, played a “key role”, as well as additional antiviral therapies and social distancing.
Immunity is not enough
There must be a combination because none of the proposals alone would be able to reduce the number of deaths to the level of usual flu outbreaks in China (88,000 deaths) or avoid an excessive need for intensive care treatments.
The researchers write that 91 percent of the population of billions have been vaccinated and 53 percent have also been boosted. “But this immunity from vaccinations might not be enough to prevent outbreaks,” said the authors, who work primarily at Fudan University in Shanghai, but also in the United States.
The study can here be read.