In the ‘post-omicron’ era, the biggest concern is when the next mutation and the next fashion will hit. It was predicted that a new mutation of Corona 19 would appear in early June and a medium-scale epidemic with more than 10 million people would continue.
This is a scenario presented by Jae-Hoon Jeong, a professor of preventive medicine at Gachon University, at the ‘Symposium on the use of big data for scientific quarantine’ hosted by the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on the 20th.
A new mutation appears as early as June
Professor Jung called the current situation of 100,000 confirmed cases a ‘hyper-endemic’. Although it is an endemic disease, the epidemic is quite large, and it means that if a new mutation catches up with it, it can become an epidemic (localized infectious disease).
He predicted that the new mutation would appear from early June to around July. It’s surprisingly quick. Professor Jeong said, “The cycle of changing the dominant species after the outbreak of Corona 19 was 10 to 14 weeks, and considering that stealth Omicron became the dominant species earlier this month, the new mutation will appear around that time and spread quickly.”
A mid-scale fashion with 10 million people will come
The newer the mutation, the better it evades existing immunity, either through vaccines or through infection. Professor Jeong said, “When changing from alpha to delta, there was a 25% immune evasion effect, and from delta to micron, it increased by about 50%. “There is a possibility that a moderate-scale epidemic will occur,” he said.
However, the more mutations are repeated, the more they spread, but the weaker they become. For this reason, Professor Jeong said, “If we prepare well for the next mutation, we will be able to prevent it without reintroducing ‘social distancing’.” But it’s not something to put your mind to. Over time, immunity tends to decline, and it remains to be seen how quickly new mutations can be detected.
Vaccine fatigue, to overcome
The biggest stumbling block is ‘vaccination fatigue’ due to multiple vaccinations. If a new mutation spreads, additional vaccination is inevitable, but the rate of 4th vaccination mainly for the elderly is standing still. Professor Jeong emphasized the need for the government to actively persuade. For example, vaccination against COVID-19 can reduce the incidence of cardiovascular complications by 50%.
Jeong Eun-ok, a professor of mathematics at Konkuk University, also said, “People’s ‘vaccine hesitation’ can increase the peak of the epidemic by 5 to 20 percent. It is expected to be ~2,700 people,” he said.
Kim Kyung-jun reporter [email protected]