Vaccination is one of the keys to deconfining. When can we consider it here? Some indicators are in the green, and several experts are hoping for an easing for the month of April.
The third wave can be avoided if we do not deconfine immediately and continue our efforts for a few more weeks. This is what the virologist and interfederal spokesperson for the fight against the coronavirus, Steven Van Gucht, affirms. “In April, the context will probably be much more favorable while February and March, according to our estimates, will remain difficult, he explained. (…) The weather will also help us: when it’s hot, people live outdoors“.
The weeks that separate us from April should be enough to give time for indicators, already green at the moment, to continue their evolution in the right direction. According to the latest figures, the number of hospital admissions averages 118 per day. The threshold to be reached to consider deconfinement is 75 hospitalization / day. “It is a very important threshold which is well calculated, explique Steven Van Gucht. February, it will be difficult to reach this threshold. Maybe it will be possible in March, but then you have to wait three weeks to stay below that threshold. So I think April is reasonable “.
The number of infections per day should ideally be up to 800. To date, nearly 1,785 people are infected daily. The reproduction rate is (0.96) below 1, indicating that the epidemic is on the decline.
Another key element to foresee deconfinement: vaccination of vulnerable people. It should have progressed by April, and should be closed in nursing homes. “Depending on the assessment of the pandemic in the entire Belgian population, it is possible that there will be relaxations from March”, believes Sven Heyndrickx, spokesperson for Iriscare, a Brussels organization in charge of nursing homes.
In Wallonia, more than 75% of nursing home residents have received both doses of the vaccine. The proportion of vaccinated is 40% for the staff. In total, just over 2.21% of Belgian adults have been fully vaccinated to date. In addition, the Covid-19 is a little more controlled every day by the medical and scientific community. Knowledge of the British variant is also improving.