Covid-19 – Should we be worried about the very slight increase in the incidence rate this Saturday?

The incidence rate increases by one point this Saturday evening. A first for two months. A slight rebound or a sign that the epidemic is starting again?

Several experts are announcing a fifth wave for this fall. Is the incidence rate which is on the rise again this Saturday evening for the first time in two months the harbinger of this?

Not so sure if we refer to the rise of the day. The incidence rate has indeed just gone, in 24 hours, from 44 to 45 cases per 100,000 inhabitants this Saturday evening. Not really enough to panic even if an increase is never a good sign …

However, one data should call for caution: that of the effective R0, the reproductive rate of the virus.

According to data from Public Health France used by Covid-Tracker, the reproductive rate of the virus has been steadily increasing for two weeks. Thus, this Saturday evening, a patient infected 0.88 people. France has not yet exceeded the threshold where a single person contaminates several others (from an R0 greater than 1) but this increase should call for caution. The reappearance of other autumn viruses (gastro, cold …) indicates that the French have relaxed the barrier gestures.

This data could prove to be decisive in the coming weeks when these indicators could be particularly impacted by the expected drop in PCR tests which have become paying for many French people.

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