Crisis in Ukraine: in the Baltic countries, the fear of being next in line

General alert in the Baltic countries! These northern European states, once also in the bosom of Moscow, are watching with more than worried eyes the Russian troops who have been massing on the border with Ukraine in recent weeks. In question, the fear of finding themselves, in turn, on the menu of the Russian giant. “If we fail to respond appropriately to Putin in Ukraine, this will be interpreted by the Kremlin as a sign of weakness and will only encourage further aggression,” Latvian Defense Minister Artis Pabriks said in a statement on Thursday. interview at Globe and Mail. If Ukraine go down to Russia… then we’re next, that’s very clear.”

In Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia, all three located on the east coast of the Baltic Sea, the maneuvers of Moscow have awakened painful memories. Occupied for the first time by the Russia of the imperial era, these countries had briefly obtained their independence between the two world wars, before returning to the Soviet flag in 1940. “For centuries, Russia has tried to dominate its neighbours. is why this issue is so sensitive in the Baltic countries: we don’t want history to repeat itself,” said Martin Hurt, Estonian researcher at the International Center for Defense and Security (ICDS), in Tallinn.

Military reinforcements arrive

Since the start of the escalation on the Ukrainian border, the Baltic States, members of the European Union, have appeared to hold a particularly firm line with regard to Moscow and have requested military reinforcements from their Western allies. Thus, four Danish F-16 fighter planes arrived this Friday, January 28 in Lithuania. The day before, six American F-15E planes had already flown to Estonia, to take part in military exercises over the next few months.

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At the end of last week, the three countries also announced the sending of Javelin anti-tank missiles and Stinger anti-aircraft missiles to Kiev, after receiving approval from Washington. “This aid will further strengthen Ukraine’s ability to defend its territory and its population in the event of Russian aggression,” they said in a joint statement. “In view of history, it is easy for Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania to identify with Ukraine, resumes Martin Hurt. For us, the Russian threat has never really disappeared.”

Among the scenarios envisaged in the Baltic States, that of a Russian offensive on the “Suwalki gap” appears particularly worrying. Well known to military strategists, this land corridor stretches about 100 kilometers along the border shared by Poland and Lithuania, straddling Belarus and the heavily militarized Russian enclave of Kaliningrad. His invasion would cut, de facto, the three Baltic countries of their Western allies.

NATO as “ultimate guarantee of security”

In this context, the withdrawal of NATO from Eastern Europe, demanded by the Kremlin as one of the conditions for de-escalation, aroused a strong outcry. “We will not agree to any agreement that would negatively affect Estonia’s security or undermine NATO’s collective defense,” Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas warned in a speech to her parliament in mid-January. On the contrary, she pleads for “moving forward, today more than ever, because we have no room for error in terms of defense and deterrence”.

“The annexation of Crimea in 2014 was experienced as a trauma by the Baltic countries, for whom there is no reason to believe that Russia would refrain from repeating in the future what it has already done in the past, points out Thibault Fouillet, researcher specializing in the Baltic countries at the Foundation for Strategic Research (FRS).If NATO’s credibility were to be compromised, their ultimate guarantee of security would be compromised. .” A sign of its importance, joining the Atlantic Alliance is the subject of a rare internal consensus in these three countries, including among the political parties that are the most Eurosceptic and suspicious of the United States.

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And beware of the allies who are a little too lukewarm. The Latvian Minister of Defense did not hesitate on Thursday to crush Germany in an interview with the Financial Times, considering that Berlin’s hesitation in the face of the Ukrainian crisis was undermining European unity before Moscow. Among other causes, the “immoral incapacity” of the Germans to give their agreement to Estonia so that it delivers to Ukraine howitzers manufactured in Germany. Prior to this, the Baltic countries had also long opposed the construction of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline – linking Russia to Germany via the Baltic Sea -, warning of the risk of Europe’s increased dependence on the Russian gas. On Wednesday evening, the United States warned that “if Russia somehow invades Ukraine, Nord Stream 2 will be blocked”. Berlin finally agreed to review its copy.