Düsseldorf The monetary policy framework in the USA spoils the start of trading on the Frankfurt floor. Of the Dax falls in the first hour of trading by 0.9 percent to 13,133 points. At the start, the minus was even 1.4 percent. Except for the Berlin food supplier Delivery Hero and Vonovia all Dax stocks are in the red. The day before, the leading index had gone out of trading with a plus of almost 0.3 percent at 13,255 points.
The MDax of medium-sized stock market stocks lost 0.6 percent in the morning to 27,529 points. The EuroStoxx 50, the leading index for the Eurozone, lost one percent to 3306 points.
The Fed rates are still at zero to 0.25 percent. That won’t change for the time being. The Fed made it clear that interest rates should remain at this level until the targets are reached. That means: an inflation rate of two percent and full employment.
A turnaround in interest rates is therefore a long way off. Based on the economic forecasts of the central bankers, an increase will follow in 2023 at the earliest. Economists, however, consider an even later adjustment to be realistic.
After all, the economic outlook is better than it was recently. For 2020, the central bank now expects the US economy to shrink by 3.7 percent, after 6.5 percent in June. The unemployment rate is expected to fall to 7.6 percent by the end of the year, after a forecast of 9.3 percent in June.
That should at least give stock marketers some encouragement. Some market participants had also expected cautious hints of a possible increase in bond purchases soon. But there were no signals of this kind.
The Fed decision resulted in mixed input from Wall Street. The leading index Dow Jones posted a small plus and stayed above the mark of 28,000 points. The broader S&P lost just under 0.5 percent, the technology-heavy Nasdaq exchange even 1.2 percent. The stock exchanges in Asia also posted losses.
The record hunt on the US stock exchanges seems to be slowed down for the time being. At the beginning of September, the indices were still within reach of their all-time highs – and, it seemed, the consequences of the corona pandemic were always ignored.
It is the day of interest rate decisions on the stock markets. Following the guidelines of the Fed, the Bank of Japan also declared that it would continue to adhere to its ultra-loose monetary policy. The Japanese central bank was also at least more optimistic about the economic situation. During the course of the day, the Bank of England also announces its interest rate decision.
The worldwide shock in demand naturally also affects the sales markets in the automotive sector. In the month of August, almost a fifth fewer new cars came onto the road in the EU, the European manufacturers association ACEA announced on Thursday in Brussels. In July, new registrations had only shrunk by just under six percent.
The titles of the automobile companies fall across Europe. The industry index for Europe is one percent weaker. Shares of Volkswagen, Daimler and BMW are among the losers in Germany, give in Paris Renault and Peugeot up to 1.5 percent. In Germany, manufacturers sold almost 29 percent fewer vehicles. The front runners are Spain (40.6 percent) and Italy (38.9 percent).
In the US, the expected numbers for initial jobless claims as well as for registered unemployed point to a very slow decline in unemployment. The central bankers should once again feel that their worries about the labor market have been confirmed.
Investors are also looking to Munich, where several corona civil lawsuits of nationwide interest for insurance companies and their corporate customers are being fought. After numerous lawsuits against insurers unwilling to pay, the regional court set the first announcement date on Thursday (12 noon), followed by three new lawsuits. The presiding judge had already made it clear in July that the individual cases cannot be assessed across the board.
The insurers reject payments to customers whose businesses were closed by the authorities in the spring and are now demanding money because they had taken out insurance against business closures.
Look at the individual values
Bitter: The share of the leasing provider listed in the MDax is recovering. The stocks expand their profits in early trading significantly, most recently this was 15 percent. On Wednesday, the paper had slumped by almost 37 percent, after losses of 20 percent on Tuesday. According to a 64-page report by the analysis company Viceroy Research, Grenke artificially inflated the balance sheet through the acquisitions of affiliated companies.
Delivery Hero: The Berlin food delivery service is strengthening its business with an acquisition in Latin America. The DAX newcomer acquires the business activities of the start-up Glovo and thus advances into five new countries. Delivery Hero is already represented in Argentina, Panama and the Dominican Republic. The share performed well against the market trend with gains of over three percent.
BioNTech: The Mainz biotech company is taking over from the Swiss pharmaceutical giant Novartis a production facility in Marburg, Hesse, for the manufacture of its potential corona vaccine. With the system, BioNTech could expand its production capacities by up to 750 million cans per year when fully operational, the company announced on Thursday. The share gained just under two percent.
Commerzbank: The shifting of chairs on the board of the bank continues. Private customer boss Michael Mandel is leaving the company, Commerzbank announced on Thursday. The share, listed in the MDax, responded with discounts of two percent. A few days earlier, the departure of Comdirect boss Frauke Hegemann had become known, and at the beginning of July CEO Zielke and supervisory board boss Schmittmann announced their resignation.
Look at other asset classes
The Fed’s bullish economic outlook supports the dollar. Compared to a basket of other currencies, the dollar gained 0.4 percent. By contrast, the euro fell to its lowest level since mid-August. The exchange rate of the common currency fell in early trading to 1.1738 US dollars, adding to the losses of the previous days.
The euro recovered later and was back above the US $ 1.18 mark in the morning. At the beginning of September, the common currency had reached an interim high of more than 1.20 dollars. In March, in the wake of the corona crash on the financial markets, the price had fallen below $ 1.07.
The positive development of the dollar weighs on the gold price. A troy ounce cost dollars in the morning of 1943 (minus 0.8 percent). The price of silver fell 1.5 percent. The prices for Brent and WTI fell on the commodity markets. This is due, among other things, to higher inventories.
What the chart technique says
From a technical chart point of view, the Dax is still in “no man’s land”. Due to the setback on Thursday, the focus is on the average price of the past 50 trading days, which is currently at 12,916 points. This line is an indicator of the medium-term trend. If the Dax falls below this mark, there is a risk of further losses. However, such a development is not to be expected in the short term.
If the stock market barometer falls below the mark of around 12,200 points, the entire positive trend from a technical chart point of view would be in danger. This is where the 200-day line, which is important for long-term investors, lies at 12,197 points.