Dax investors are waiting for US unemployment figures – lira plummeting

Düsseldorf Positive US job market data gave that Dax on Friday afternoon initially buoyancy. The leading index Dax gained 0.8 percent to 12,691 points after the figures were published. Shortly afterwards, the stock market barometer shifted down a gear again, but defended the 12,600 point mark that it had regained that morning. In the early afternoon, the Dax was down 0.3 percent at 12,635 points.

The US labor market recovered somewhat more strongly than expected in July. The government said Friday that 1,763 million jobs were created outside of agriculture.

Economists polled by Reuters had only expected 1.6 million new jobs. The unemployment rate determined in a separate survey fell to 10.2 percent. This was also a positive surprise: only a drop to 10.5 percent was expected after 11.1 percent in June.

The job market is thus making up some ground again after the waves of layoffs, which caused full employment to turn into mass unemployment in the spring of the corona crisis.

Behavioral economist Joachim Goldberg currently considers consolidation at a high level to be the most positive DAX scenario. Institutional investors have already used the latest setback for additional purchases, is the result of his survey for the Frankfurt Stock Exchange.

At the same time, investors could probably have ended the potentially loss-making bets on falling prices. This reduced the possibility of a short squeeze, i.e. a sudden price increase for no fundamental reason.

The fact that German industry is continuing its recovery has a supportive effect on Friday. In June, manufacturing rose by 8.9 percent month-on-month, as the Federal Statistical Office announced on Friday. Analysts had expected a somewhat weaker growth of 8.2 percent.

Production in the automotive industry even increased by 54.7 percent compared to the previous month. But it is still a good twenty percent lower than in February. Values ​​from the automotive industry remain under pressure – especially suppliers: Continental loses 3.3 percent in the Dax, gathered in the SDax Rule Group, Schaeffler and Leoni with discounts of up to 5.7 percent at the back.

The German export balance also gives rise to hope. According to the data published by the Federal Statistical Office on Friday morning, the value of goods exports fell in the first half of the year by 13.4 percent to 576.8 billion euros compared to the same period of the previous year, but the recovery that began in May continued in June. Compared to the previous month, exports rose by 14.9 percent.

Lira at record low

The Turkish lira remains under pressure on the foreign exchange market, reaching a new record low against the dollar. In return, the dollar rose by a good 1.5 percent to 7.3647 lira – and that after the lira had not moved against the dollar for weeks.

“The Turkish lira has broken out of sideways trade with force. Whatever intervention mechanism has kept the exchange rate flat – it has probably failed, ”commented Commerzbank-Experte Tatha Ghose.

In his view, this has increased the likelihood that the lira will approach a level of 8.50 lira per dollar. The various capital controls and restrictions imposed by the Turkish authorities were obviously no longer sufficient to keep the lira stable.

“This should start a new phase of higher lira volatility,” explains Ghose. “Normally, in such a case, the exchange rate rises by leaps and bounds in order to close the gap to the fundamentally justified exchange rate that has built up during the duration of the intervention.” However, point forecasts are hardly possible in such an environment.

QiagenTakeover threatens to fail

Laboratory supplier Thermo Fisher is running out of time with the planned takeover of the German-Dutch biotech company Qiagen. On Thursday, the Americans said they owned 6.68 percent of Qiagen. However, the takeover will only take place if you hold more than two thirds of the shares. The deadline for this is August 10th.

Thermo Fisher recently increased its offer from 39 to 43 euros per Qiagen title. The share is currently trading at around 40 euros, but the all-time high from the end of June was 42.98 euros. Many shareholders therefore consider the offer to be too low. The resistance is led by hedge fund Davidson Kempner, which holds around eight percent,

Thermo Fisher had already announced on Tuesday evening that the offer of 43 euros per share was the “best and last offer”. The US group will not start another offer if the current 11.3 billion euros fails and the acceptance rate is not reached. If so, Qiagen would also have to pay $ 95 million in cash to Thermo Fisher.

Focus on individual values

Deutsche Telekom: The shares of the telecommunications company gain more than two percent after the subsidiary T-Mobile US Has submitted business figures. T-Mobile US benefited from the merger with its smaller competitor Sprint, and revenues soared. Meanwhile, T-Mobile US accounts for more than half of the telecommunications revenue, said a dealer.

Daimler: The car maker Daimler is just under an increase in car sales for the parent brand in July Mercedes Benz scraped past. The Stuttgart-based company sold 185,836 cars to dealers and directly to end customers, which was two percent less than in the same month last year, according to a website of the Dax group on Friday. In the first seven months, the decline is now 16.2 percent. The stock loses a good one percent.

SNP Schneider: The software provider benefits from the corona pandemic; sales increased by 17 percent in the first half of the year and incoming orders rose by nine percent. The operating loss was EUR 4.9 million in the first half of the year. The company is sticking to its forecast. The shares give way more than two percent.

What the chart technique says

On Thursday, the Dax, with its daily low of 11,520 points, confirmed the one-week upward trend, write the chart technicians from HSBC. Now it has to be seen whether the leading German index will defend this trend.

Should the Dax not succeed, the 55-day line, which is important in the medium term, would come into play. The moving average is now slightly above the 12,400 mark. A test of the 200-day line would be preprogrammed below this, which moves around 12,210 points.

On the upside, the HSBC experts see the one-week high at 12,799 points as resistance that could not be overcome in the end. Above that, the way would be free to 12,935 points, the lower end of a gap in the quotation that even goes up to 13,067 points.

Here is the page with the Dax Course, here are the current tops & flops in the Dax. Current Short sales of investors can be found in our Short sales database.

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