Republicans, who were predicted to triumph in the midterm elections to the US Congress on November 6 at the beginning of the year, are unlikely to win control of the Senate – on the contrary, the Democrats are likely to consolidate their superiority there. This is what the polls say. Meanwhile, the ratings of Democratic President Joe Biden went up. The correspondent of “Kommersant” in Washington dealt with the current political situation in the United States and the reasons for its change. Catherine Moore.
The Democratic Party and US President Joe Biden are improving their positions in the national ratings ahead of the midterm congressional elections, according to the latest public opinion polls.
Yes, according to the poll. Gallup, the approval rating of President Joe Biden in the last days of August reached 44%, which is his best result for the entire current year. By remark Roll Call, this is contrary to the trend of the last 70 years. The publication notes that not a single American president improved his rating of electoral support from the end of January-February until the midterm elections, which are traditionally held in the United States in November. Moreover, as follows from the analysis carried out by the publication, the average rating of American presidents at that time decreased by a significant 8%.
Joe Biden at first had everything like everyone else, however, his ratings fell more rapidly than those of his predecessors.
At the beginning of the year, the American president was supported by 41% of voters, and in July, electoral support fell to 38% amid rising gasoline prices and a deteriorating economy. However, in recent weeks the situation has changed for the better for Joe Biden. Moreover, analysts admit that this trend will continue in the near future.
The growing popularity of the current administration is indicated not only by Gallup, but also by other public opinion research institutions, as evidenced by data from a nationwide ratings aggregator. FiveThirtyEight. Joe Biden’s nationwide composite support rating, according to him, is at 42.5% today. And, crucially for congressional elections, support for the president is growing when analyzed separately by district and state.
In addition, according to the survey Yahoo News / YouGov, Joe Biden is now ahead of Donald Trump in popularity. If the presidential election were held today, 48% of registered voters would be ready to support him, and 42% would support Donald Trump.
As noted Newsweek, such an improvement in Joe Biden’s ratings is a “significant” boost for the ruling party in the upcoming congressional elections, as “by-elections tend to be a referendum of confidence in the incumbent and the party in power.” That is why any improvement in Joe Biden’s performance ratings has the potential to benefit Democrats on the ballot.
It is also important that, according to Roll Call, the majority of voters who do not approve of the work of Joe Biden do not hold other Democrats responsible for his mistakes. As a result, many Democrats who will compete for a seat in the Senate in the midterm elections outperform Mr. Biden.
Thus, the upcoming elections may not be as bad for the Democratic Party as previously expected. Recall that many experts at the beginning of the year predicted that the Democrats would fail in the elections to both the Senate and the House of Representatives. However, now, according to FiveThirtyEight, the Democrats have a serious chance not only to maintain a majority in the Senate, but also to win back several seats from the Republicans. “The Democrats have an 80 percent chance of taking 47 to 54 seats,” the resource study notes. The Democratic lead “is partly due to the Republicans picking weak candidates in several key races, hurting their chances of making it to the upper house in November.”
Helped the Democrats and some stabilization in the US economy, a slowdown in fuel prices. After all, the deplorable situation in the US economy was largely an argument in favor of the Republicans.
On the other hand, their own tactical miscalculations contributed to the worsening of the ratings of the Republicans. While voters continue to demand a solution to inflation and high gas prices, to deal with crime and immigration, they are also in no hurry to vote for Republicans as an alternative. Many were angered by the decision of the US Supreme Court regarding the right to abortion at the federal level. This caused some independent voters to turn their backs on the Republican Party. As a result, experts predict victory for the Democrats in the Senate elections, for example, in Pennsylvania and Arizona. Previously, analysts either did not give preference to anyone, or promised victory to the Republicans.
Another intense race in which Democrats have a better chance, according to experts, is the fight for the senator’s seat in Nevada. There, incumbent senator Catherine-Cortez Masto will compete to retain her seat with Donald Trump-backed Adam Laxalt, who holds the post of state attorney general. Ms. Masto has already shown a competitive edge in campaign fundraising, raising more than her competitor, reports The Hill. Republican strategists remain hopeful of strengthening their positions and believe that millions of dollars in television in the next few weeks will solve the backlog problem, continues Roll Call. However, if the Republicans fail to win a majority in the Senate, they already know who to blame. Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell recently hintedthat the “lack of quality of candidates” is to blame, since Donald Trump chooses whom to support only from those who are loyal to him. Donald Trump, meanwhile, has also been preparing the ground for a possible defeat of the party in the Senate for several weeks now, criticizing Mr. McConnell’s actions in response.
However, despite the current alignment, the Republicans still have a better chance than the Democrats to regain control of the House of Representatives, follows from another analysis. FiveThirtyEight. “Republicans have an 80 percent chance of taking 209 to 247 seats,” the study notes.
However, things can still change. Newsweek notes that the mid-term elections are still almost two months away and there is a fierce battle for both the House of Representatives and the Senate. So the scales can tilt both in one direction and in the other.