Beyond the fall, the so-called “cable dollar” accumulated a 6.7% increase ($ 10.36) during the week, in a context of investment uncertainty due to the constant loss of Bookings and the lack of clarity about the direction of the economy at the local level.
At the by, the MEP contracted 1.9% to $ 152.07 (spread of 96.2% against the wholesale dollar), although in the week accumulated a 6% rise, or $ 8.65 measured in monetary units.
In an interview conducted at the IDEA colloquium, Guzmán clarified that the evolution of the alternative exchange rates to the official one “do not reflect what is happening in the Argentine economy” but showed his concern about “what they do about expectations.” In that sense, he recognized that the controls on the CCL generated a smaller market but with greater volatility, a situation that is intended to be reversed by loosening the restrictions established above.
Matias Rajnerman, an economist at Ecolatina, said this week in dialogue with Ambit that the increases in financial dollars observed in recent days had to do with uncertainty and that a consistent macroeconomic plan is not seen, although he pointed out that “the main problem is that the reserves fall”. “Good things don’t happen, but bad things also happen”, he sentenced.
Faced with this not very encouraging outlook, the analyst warned that the current dynamics “reflects that there are many mutual funds that are willing to leave the country even at unusually expensive dollar values, because they think that tomorrow will be even more expensive. “
For its part, in a context of limited operations, the blue dollar registered a strong increase of $ 7 to reach $ 178, according to a survey of Ambit in caves of the Buenos Aires city. In this way, the gap with the officer touched 130%.
With these numbers, the increase of the week was important but less than last week (6.6% vs 11.3%).
The bullish streak of the price was largely due to effects of the last hardening of the stocks exchange rate that, on the one hand, increased demand in parallel markets and, at the same time, generated a contraction in supply by blocking the operations of those individuals who are dedicated to making the ‘mash’ (buy from the official and sell from the parallel) .
Since the Central Bank announced greater restrictions on the purchase of dollars, in mid-September, the informal registered a rise of $ 47.
Mistrust of the domestic economy, the recession, poverty and difficulties in finding employment, make savers turn to the parallel market for coverage, as they cannot access the official market.
In the official segment, the solidarity dollar -which includes 30% of the COUNTRY tax and 35% on account of Profits-, rose 35 cents to $ 137.28. At Banco Nación, the ticket without surcharges closed at $ 82.50, the same value on Thursday.
Meanwhile, in the segment wholesaler, the currency increased five cents to $77,52, after exhibiting its first descent since February the day before.
The North American currency exhibited a mixed journey, reaching $ 77.57 before falling through official sales. According to operators, at the end of the wheel, private supply improved and allowed the monetary authority to recover from its initial losses, ending with a balance in favor close to US $ 30 million, approximately.
Along with the change in interest rates in pesos, on Thursday night The Central Bank ruled that from now on importers must have a Customs verification to access the exchange marketTherefore, requests to the monetary authority can no longer be anticipated.
In addition, it was established that the information regime of “Advance exchange operations” provided (by which banks had to anticipate a report to the BCRA, 48 hours before the established date, the foreign exchange needs provided that the request was for a higher amount at US $ 500,000), from now on it will be necessary when the expenses operations included imply access to the exchange market for a daily amount equal to or greater than the equivalent of US $ 50,000.
“The greater restrictions imposed to access currency trading had a certain result in the last round of the week and they gave rise to prevent the entity led by Miguel Pesce from ending another day with net losses of liquid reserves, “said Gustavo Quintana, from PR Corredores de Cambio.
It should be remembered that Gross Reserves Internationals fell on Thursday u $ s70 million until the u $ s40,778 million, for accumulate a drop of US $ 603 million so far in October.
Despite this situation, Minister Guzmán assured that there is a sufficient amount of reserves “that can be made liquid from one day to the next” based on demand but warned that not enough to release the stocks. “We want to have macroprudential regulations, but that takes a while,” he said.
In the ROFEX futures market, US $ 249 million were traded. The terms showed strong increases, starting in November, rising some more than 2%. October ended with a rate of 29.82% and November, with a rate of 54.72%.
By the end of the year, a value of $ 87.35 was registered with a rate of 60.90%. At the same time, the open contract positions totaled the sum of US $ 5.519 billion.
As part of a strategy to “harmonize the interest rates of the monetary policy and maintain the positive bias of the yield on savings in pesos,” the BCRA made several decisions on Thursday.
First, the rate of Fixed deadlines less than a million pesos, up to 34%. At the same time, it raised three points, to 30%, the rate of passive passes (for bank financing) and reduced the interest rate by one point Liquidity Bills (Leliqs), up to 36%.
“The alignment of rates with the Treasury instruments allows to gradually reduce the quasi-fiscal cost of sterilization while increasing its effectiveness in influencing short-term rates of the economy,” they explained from the entity.