The European Commission participates in a similar belief, although with a different calendar: On November 5, it predicted that Spain will grow in 2021 in line with its partners, after predictably losing 12.4% this year, and that it will lead the expansion in 2022, only behind from Malta. And the US investment bank Goldman Sachs was even more optimistic on November 11 because it sees Spain growing next year at 7.1% and 6.4% in 2022, ahead of its partners and also the world average : 6% in 2021 and 4.6% in 2022.
The Spanish uniqueness, characterized by serious breakdowns followed by sudden recoveries such as those experienced in the 60s, 1985-1992, 1993-2007 and 2014-2019, make it possible that these omens could materialize at the expense of how tough the current wave of the pandemic is, that there are no other waves, that vaccines arrive soon, that extraordinary European funds are unblocked and that Spain knows how to take advantage of them , that the ERTES, ICO lines and other protection measures keep the hardest hit productive fabric latent until then and that the crisis in the real economy does not result in financial and sovereign.
Spain’s traditional capacity for resounding collapses and strong recoveries was once again evident this year: it was the country of the major European economies that fell the most in the second quarter with lockdowns (-18.5%) and the second that most it rebounded after France with the reopening of activity in the third quarter: + 16.7%.
“The Spanish economy is very strong as soon as the virus outbreaks are controlled”
“I have enormous confidence. Spain always surprises for the better, ”argued former minister and vice president of the ECB Luis de Guindos on September 17. And his former roommate Cristóbal Montoro asserted on November 3 that Spain always “beats the worst forecasts”. That same day, the Minister of the Economy, Nadia Calviño, said: “The Spanish economy has great strength as soon as the virus outbreaks are controlled.” Even so, it is foreseeable that the country will not be able to recover the GDP level of 2019 until the end of 2022 or the beginning of 2023.
Spain is urged to return to pre-Covid levels to heal damage and stop unemployment. But, beyond that, land encourages taking advantage of the recovery and the funds that come from Europe to undertake a transformation that exempts him from such a pendular and extremist behavior, inherent to his sectoral specialization. Each country does what it knows and can do, according to its capabilities, and it must be acted upon. It is not a question of giving up anything that we have, but of aspiring, in addition, to what is not sufficiently available and which is typical of economies with greater solidity, industrial weight, added value and the ability to withstand cyclical adversities.