Interactive Covenant Simulator
Check on the pactometer for possiblepactsbehind theagreementbetween the PSOE and UP. Simulate the votes of each formation and know if the results of the general elections allow the investiture.
Once the general elections are held, the next date marked on the calendar is December 3, when the Courts will be constituted and the Congressional and Senate Tables will be elected. Although the distribution of charges in the Tables always leaves the first clues about possiblepactsfacing oneinvestment, the preagreementof government announced by Pedro Snchez and Pablo Iglesias limits the possible combinations to form a major government.
EL MUNDO DATA offers you the possibility to simulate the possible agreements of the investiture session based on the Regulations of the Congress of Deputies. Choose acandidateand check how the support for, against or the abstentions of each political formation condition the path to the government headquarters.
In ideological key, the results of10-Nthey leave a balance of forces between blocks similar to that of 28-A. Thus, the sum of PSOE, Unidos Podemos and Ms Pas reaches 158 seats (eight less than in April) for the 152 of the Popular Party, Cs, Vox andUnion of the Navarro People(three more than in the previous elections).
With a Congress in which arithmetic makes it very difficult to reach 176 deputies who guarantee the absolute majority and overcome the investiture at first vote, the combinations go through getting more votes in favor than against.
Thus, given the coalition proposal between the PSOE and Unidos Podemos, it is foreseeable that they oppose PP, Vox, Cs and UPN, to which Coalicin Canaria (144 seats) are expected to join, due to their refusal to the presence of UP in the Council of Ministers, and Junts per Catalunya (8) and the CUP (2). In total, 164 votes against. To overcome the investiture Snchez needat least 165 votes in favor, a sum that can be achieved through any of the following combinations:
- If PSOE + UP get the favorable vote of Ms Pas, ERC and PNV, Pedro Snchez will be invested in first vote with 178 votes (absolute majority).
- With the votes in favor of PSOE + UP + MP + ERC (171) and abstention of PNV and EH Bildu.
- With the votes in favor of PSOE + UP + MP + PNV (165) and abstentions of ERC, EH Bildu, PRC, BNG and Teruel Existe.
- With the votes in favor of PSOE + UP + MP + EH Bildu (165) plus two favorable votes and one abstention from the three seats that have PRC, BNG and Teruel Exist, together with the abstentions of ERC and the PNV.
In the event that theGo Catalan will be blockedand ERC also refused to facilitate the investiture of the PSOE candidate, the refusal of the Republicans, JxCat and the CUP next to the center-right block and Canary Coalicin will represent half of the hemicycle (175), so that the governance will be again blocked up.
In the event that the agreement between the PSOE and United We can derail, and if the Socialists seek agreat coalitionwith the PP, Snchez will be invested with 208 votes at first vote. If thepopularthey would yield by means of their abstention, before a presumable vote against Vox, United We, ERC, JxCat, EH Bildu and the CUP (115), the combinations will happen through:
- Abstention of Cs + PNV + Ms Pas and three other abstentions between CC, UPN, PRC, BNG and Teruel Existe.
- If Cs and MP also vote against, it will be necessary to vote in favor of PNV together with two votes in favor and all others abstain from CC, UPN, PRC, BNG and Teruel Existe.
- If MP and the PNV also vote against, it will be necessary to abstain from Cs along with six votes in favor and an abstention from CC, UPN, PRC, BNG and Teruel Existe.
- If MP and the PNV also vote against, it will be necessary to vote in favor of Cs with two votes in favor or one in favor and another abstention from CC, UPN, PRC, BNG and Teruel Existe.
There will be a third scenario: asum of PSOE and Csthat will have the approval of the PP:
- If PSOE and CS vote in favor of Snchez, the investiture will move forward if they get abstention from the PP and three other abstentions or two favorable votes (132 in total) from the rest of the parliamentary arch.
How the investiture process works
Neither the Regulations of the Congress nor the Constitution determine deadlines for the round of consultations between the King and the parties or the holding of the investiture plenary, in which the applicant sets out his program and seeks the confidence of the Chamber. The only reference is found in article 170 of the Regulation, which leaves the call of said plenary to the president of the Chamber, Meritxell Batet.
Having held the investiture debate between the candidate and the representatives of each parliamentary group, the decisive moment of the voting comes. The 'S' of at least 176 deputies ensures the presidency of the Government. Any result below that number prevents the appointment, at least in the first round.
The regulation of the Congress contemplates a second vote, 48 hours after the initial one, in which the simple majority of the seats is sufficient, a process through which they passedLeopoldo Calvo Sotelo, when I replaced Adolfo Surez in 1981, Jos Lus Rodrguez Zapatero to revalidate his mandate, in 2008, and Mariano Rajoy, in 2016, when I overcame the vote thanks to the abstention of a large part of the parliamentary group of the Socialists.
The second round allows to obtain the confidence of the Congress with less deputies. If the number of votes in favor exceeds that of votes against, the candidate will be the next tenant of the Moncloa Palace.
And if he did not achieve the simple majority either? In that case, the applicant will have failed and the process will begin again. The King will consult the parties with representation again, propose another candidate and another investiture session will be held. The procedure can be repeated as many times as necessary, with a limit: two months from the conclusion of the first investiture vote. After that time, if no candidate obtained sufficient support, the courts will be dissolved and new general elections will be called.
So far, Pedro Snchez himself twice (in March 2016 and July 2019) and Rajoy, in September 2016, have starred in the three failed investiture of democracy.
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. (tagsToTranslate) spanish / general-elections (t) General Elections (t) PSOE (t) PP (t) Citizens (t) United Vox (t) We can (t) More Country (t) ERC (t) Junts per Catalunya (t) Cantabria Regionalist Party (t) Pedro Sánchez (t) Mariano Rajoy (t) Canary Coalition (t) Pablo Iglesias (t) Senate (t) Bildu (t) Congress of Deputies (t) PNV (t) José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero (t) Meritxell Batet (t) Data journalism