Dusty earth, charred tree trunks and the tap just hisses: large parts of western Europe are suffering from extreme heat and drought. All signs of what we have to prepare for in the future.
The worst drought in decades is currently hitting homes, factories, farmers and businesses in western Europe. The picture is the same in many regions: parched fields, dry riverbeds, empty wells. An exceptional summer? Not at all, experts say and warn: Drier winters and scorching summers are making water scarcity the new normal.
According to the European Drought Observatory (EDO), a drought warning was in effect for almost half of the entire EU area in mid-July, with 15 percent already on red alert.
(Foto: European Drought Observatory (EDO))
With no other topic are climate researchers so sure about the future trend as with temperature and heat. When it comes to precipitation, there is a lot to be said for more extremes. But the models are uncertain on this point, especially for Central Europe, says Jakob Zscheischler from the Helmholtz Center for Environmental Research. “When it’s hot, it’s clear that things will continue as they have in recent years.” In all models it gets warmer, in some even extremely hot. “40 degrees in Germany are becoming the norm,” explains Peter Hoffmann from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. “Today’s extreme years with 20 hot days will become average summers by the end of the century if we don’t take massive countermeasures in the coming years.”
Calculations by the expert network of the Federal Ministry of Transport clarify the frightening forecasts: According to this, the 30-year average temperature in the summer months in Germany in the period 2071 to 2100 could be three to five degrees higher than in the comparative period 1971 to 2000. This would then daily highs of over 45 reached at least as often as is currently the case for the 40-degree mark.
According to this data, the number of hot days with 30 degrees and more could most likely be in a range of 9.4 to 23.0 per year on average across Germany. For comparison: From 1971 to 2000 there were only 4.6 such days on average nationwide. The number of summer days with maximum temperatures of 25 degrees or more could even rise to 39.5 to 63.8 (comparative period: 29.0). On tropical nights when the thermometer shows no less than 20 degrees, 0.8 to 7.8 degrees per year are possible. In the comparative period from 1971 to 2000, the value was 0.1.
Fires destroy entire forests
And not only in Germany is it getting hotter. Climate researchers in other European countries come to similar conclusions in their models. The shows what effects the extreme heat is already having European Union Drought Observatory (EDO): In mid-July, almost half of the entire EU area had a drought warning, with 15 percent already on red alert. Since then, conditions have continued to deteriorate due to repeated heat waves across the continent.
So reached in Deutschland the water levels of Lake Constance and the Rhine have recently reached lows. Barge operators and farmers are particularly affected. The ships on the Rhine can only take on a third of the possible cargo. This drives up prices for container, coal and grain shipments. The surrounding fields are also bone dry. Farmers are already worried about the corn harvest and the late potato varieties.
In addition, the forests are burning in many places. In Brandenburg “the drought situation is the worst that the country has experienced in its history,” says Interior Minister Michael Stübgen. The background is the lack of precipitation in the past five years and the severe drought this year. “As a result, we already had more than 400 fires,” explains Stübgen.
Also in France the forests are on fire. In July, a fire near Bordeaux destroyed thousands of hectares of forest. Now the fires are flaring up again as a result of the extreme drought. Last week Prime Minister Élisabeth Borne set up a crisis team to tackle the drought, which is the worst since records began in 1958, according to Météo-France, the national weather service. The Loire River, which is more than 1000 kilometers long, is so dry in places that it can be crossed on foot. According to the weather service, the precipitation in July was 85 percent below the usual values.
High temperatures and a lack of rain are causing France’s once green areas to dry up
(Foto: European Union, Copernicus Sentinel-3 imagery)
More than 100 French communities are without running water. Trucks bring drinking water to the local people, reports the Minister for Ecological Transition and Territorial Cohesion, Christophe Béchu. He is anxious about the future: “We will have to get used to such episodes. Adaptation is no longer an option, it is a duty”. Soil moisture is already at an all-time low, and we’re still a long way from the redeeming rain.
Drinking water is becoming scarce
With extreme water shortage also struggles Spain. The country is currently experiencing what is probably the driest summer in the last 60 years. According to the government, water reserves are almost 40 percent lower than ever. The heat means more water is being used while natural reserves continue to fall – by 1.5 percent every week, according to Madrid sources.
Less than half of the precipitation expected for this time of year has fallen in the last three months. 70 percent of the reservoirs in Spain can no longer cover the needs of the region assigned to them. Water use is therefore restricted in many parts of the country. Municipalities turn off water at night, close beach showers and ban pool filling.
This year will be the hottest and driest year on record Italy was recorded. “I don’t know what else we have to do to make the climate crisis a political issue,” said Luca Mercalli, President of the Italian Meteorological Society. “There is no comparable data over the past 230 years that compares to the drought and heat we are experiencing this year.” These episodes would increase in frequency and intensity.
The Po, the lifeline of northern Italy, hardly carries any water.
(Foto: picture alliance / NurPhoto)
The drying up Po river illustrates the climate crisis with frightening clarity. The flow rate of Italy’s longest waterway has dropped to a tenth of the usual value, the water level is two meters below normal. In early July, the government declared a drought emergency in five northern regions and rationed drinking water there. Since then, trucks have been supplying the villages around Lake Maggiore.
Farmers fear for cattle and fields
Die Netherlands also declared a water shortage last week. The government has not yet introduced restrictions on household consumption. But people are being asked to think twice before washing their car or filling a pool.
Satellite images show the extreme drought in the Netherlands compared to last year.
(Foto: European Union, Copernicus Sentinel-2 imagery)
In the neighboring Belgium meanwhile, meteorologists reported the driest July since 1885. Despite a ban on farmers pumping water for harvesting, the water table is exceptionally low. Bog areas are in danger of drying out. And the canals and rivers are also in poor condition: local authorities report that many fish are dying because only industrial or waste water arrives there. Thirteen communes in the Ardennes have banned people from filling their swimming pools.
In the Switzerland Meanwhile, the dairy industry is hardest hit by the drought: the authorities in Fribourg, Jura and Neuchâtel had to open the meadows in the valleys, which are not normally used for grazing, until September because the pastures at higher altitudes have already dried up. In the canton of Obwalden near Lucerne, the army had to use helicopters to transport water from a lake to the cows to keep them from dying of thirst.
“Every tenth of a degree counts”
According to a report published in early July, the number of heat waves over Europe has increased three to four times faster than in other regions in the northern central latitudes, such as the USA or East Asia Study in the journal “Nature Communications”. “With every additional tenth of a degree of global temperature rise, the probability of even hotter summers increases,” warns climate researcher Peter Hoffmann. There is an urgent need for action. “Climate change is progressing and we know what possible future scenarios could look like. We absolutely have to act now to keep the chance of stabilizing the global climate to well below two degrees.”
The physicist and climate scientist Friederike Otto from Grantham from the Institute of Imperial College London finds haunting words about the current situation: “It’s hot in Europe and it may get extremely hot,” she writes on Twitter. “These temperatures would have been lower if we hadn’t been burning fossil fuels. It also means fewer people would have died. Heat waves are by far the deadliest extremes in Europe.”
Experts say it’s not too late to act. “Even if we’re just starting with climate protection today, we can still exert influence,” explains Andreas Becker, head of the DWD’s climate monitoring department. “Every tenth of a degree counts.”