Expert: This military exercise in mainland China is intended to arouse fear and has not yet exercised the key to locking up Taiwan

US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan, and the Chinese People’s Liberation Army conducted live-fire exercises around Taiwan for nearly a week. British media quoted experts to analyze that the purpose of the CCP’s exercises around Taiwan was to arouse fear among Taiwanese, while the In this wave of exercises, the PLA has not yet taken the key to effectively blockade Taiwan, such as mobilizing the coast guard or maritime militia, and it may be reserved for the next escalation to show a greater threat.

Warplanes of the Eastern Theater Command of the Chinese People's Liberation Army PLA conduct operations during joint combat training exercises around the Taiwan Island, Aug. 7, 2022. The Eastern Theater Command continued its joint combat training exercises as scheduled on Sunday in the waters and airspace around the Taiwan Island.   The focus on Sunday was set on testing the capabilities of using joint fires to strike land targets and striking long-range air targets. (Photo by Xu Shaodu/Xinhua via Getty Images)

British media quoted experts to analyze that the purpose of the CCP’s exercises around Taiwan is to arouse the fear of Taiwanese, and in this wave of exercises, the PLA has not yet taken the key to mobilizing the coast guard or maritime militia to effectively block Taiwan. (File photo/Getty Images)

Several analysts said that China’s military exercises against Taiwan are creating a new normal, which may “regularize” similar military exercises. The Guardian reported that Amanda Hsiao, a senior China analyst at the International Crisis Group, said that the scale of the communist army’s crossing of the central line across the Taiwan Strait in the future may not be the same as last week. “The key is to make it routine.” “These kinds of constant attempts basically show that the midline doesn’t matter anymore.”

Alessio Patalano, a professor of strategic studies in East Asian warfare at King’s College London, analyzed that the PLA exercises were meant to “evoke fear in the hearts of Taiwanese people, a sense of inescapability”. In the message, there is a risk that blatantly provocative measures may become normalized.

John Culver, a former CIA analyst and a former senior intelligence officer in East Asia, believes that it is also important that the PLA exercises have not done anything, including not yet entering Taiwan’s territorial waters, sending military planes over Taiwan, mobilizing the coast guard or Maritime militias, “these will be the key to the actual blockade”. He said that this can be seen as restraint by the Chinese side, but it will also be an escalation step they reserve until the next time they show a greater threat and seriousness.

Some analysts said it was not clear whether Beijing felt the drills served any purpose. Bonnie Glaser, director of the Asia Program of the German Marshall Foundation (GMF), a Washington think tank, said: “It is impossible to properly assess the effectiveness of the PLA’s joint exercises.” Glaser believes that the newly announced anti-submarine and naval assaults Drills, which will rehearse some of the capabilities that were lacking last week.

Regarding the CCP’s military exercises around Taiwan for several days, Foreign Minister Wu Zhaoxie issued a 5-point statement at an international press conference yesterday, criticizing the CCP for “destroying the long-standing tacit understanding of the central line of the Taiwan Strait with specific actions, and attempting to normalize it after the exercise to undermine the Taiwan Strait. The long-standing status quo on both sides of the Taiwan Strait.”

Wu Zhaoxie condemned the irresponsibility of mainland China. He also mentioned that Beijing has gradually connected the East China Sea, the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea, making it China’s internal sea. Its ambitions are not limited to Taiwan, and the damage will not be limited to Taiwan. Democracies work together to discuss ways to respond.

Responsible editor: Yu Weining

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Expert: This military exercise in mainland China is intended to arouse fear and has not yet exercised the key to locking up Taiwan

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