The strong rebound in growth of 18.3% observed in the third quarter just after the spring containment was only a short digression. With the re-containment decided to limit the active resumption of the coronavirus epidemic, economic activity is expected to contract by 13% compared to normal in November, according to INSEE forecasts published on Tuesday. An estimate close to that of the Banque de France which expects a fall of 12%. As for household consumption, it should deteriorate significantly with an estimated drop of 15% compared to the fourth quarter of 2019.
Admittedly, this new fall is much less severe than during the first confinement, which caused a collapse in activity of around 30% last April. “Astonishment has indeed given way to adaptation and learning.», Underlines the experts of INSEE. The use of telework, health protocols now “relatively well established»Or the opening of schools