Will the acceleration of vaccination be enough to counter the fourth wave? Probably not, according to the latest models from the Institut Pasteur, posted on Tuesday July 27. According to calculations by Simon Cauchemez’s team, immunizing a larger part of the population under the pressure of the health pass will reduce the size of the peak in hospitalizations, but without further measures it could well be as high as that of the second, or even the first wave. “If we stay on a dynamic with a transmission rate equal to 2 [ce qui signifie que chaque individu infecté contamine en moyenne deux personnes], this could lead to significant congestion in the hospital ”, underlines Simon Cauchemez, also a member of the scientific council.
If, at the end of May, when the Delta variant was still only an uncertain threat, the modeler hoped for a “Quiet summer”, his scenarios are now much more pessimistic. In the event that vaccination would reach cruising speed 700,000 injections per day and that more French people would like to be vaccinated (30% of 12-17 year olds, 90% of 18-59 year olds and 95% of over 60s ), up to 2,500 daily hospitalizations are expected at the peak, or a level close to that of the second wave, in November 2020. This is less than what was anticipated on July 9, before the announcement of the place of the health pass – up to 4,800 hospitalizations per day, well beyond the 3,600 hospitalizations observed at the peak of the first wave, in April 2020 -, but far too much to prevent hospitals from overflowing again.
The number of critical care beds occupied at the peak could reach 5,400, or even 7,200, if the average lengths of stay are longer (15 days compared to 10), i.e. the levels reached during the first two waves. epidemics. “A reduction in the transmission rate thanks to non-pharmaceutical measures therefore remains important to limit the impact of the wave on the hospital system”, insist the authors, stating that “Even small reductions can have a big impact”. By lowering the transmission rate by 10%, the number of hospitalizations at the peak would be “only” 1,800, and 1,200 with a reduction of 25%.
” At the crossroads “
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