Attention stockholders of financial stocks! The dividends expected to be distributed by 4 state-owned financial holdings and 2 state-owned banks next year have come out! Whether investment friends want to add more money or accept it as soon as it is good, now is the time to evaluate.
Some investors may ask, “This year is not over yet, why do you know how much dividends can be distributed next year?” The main reasons are:(1) Cash dividends are related to AFT’s treasury budget, which must be decided in advance. In addition, (2) major financial holding companies and banks can roughly estimate the size of dividends that can be distributed next year based on the profit levels of the first three quarters. Therefore, next year The dividend payout figures can be preliminarily confirmedbut if there is a plan for allotment of shares, it will still have to wait until the approval of the board of directors next year to be confirmed.
How much cash dividends are allocated to the “4 gold and 2 silver”, let’s take a look!
Table 1. Official stock financial holdings and banks that initially confirmed cash dividends
|Financial institution||2022 Proposed Cash Dividend||2021 Distribution of cash dividends||2021 Distribution of stock dividends||dividend yield|
|First Gold (2892)||1.0||1.0||0.2||3.92%|
|Mega Gold (2886)||()1.2||1.4||0.25||3.85%|
|He Kujin (5880)||1.0||1.0||0.3||3.83%|
|South China Gold (2880)||0.5||0.78||0.34||2.27%|
|Taiwan Enterprise Bank (2834)||0.2||0.1||0.37||1.56%|
Data compilation: Chen Weitai (Note: The dividend yield is calculated based on the closing price on 11/23)
Dividend yield less than 4%
Attached Table 1 is the cash dividends initially confirmed next year for 4 state-owned financial holdings and 2 state-owned banks, and the current dividend yield calculated using the closing price on November 23.
First of all, we look at the proposed cash dividends. Compared with last year, there is only one increase: Taiwan Enterprise Bank (2834), but if you look at the current stock price, the dividend yield is the lowest.
Compared with last year, there are three companies with the same cash dividend: First Gold (2892), Hekujin (5880), and Zhangyin (2801). Judging from the current stock prices of these three financial stocks, First Gold has the highest dividend yield, followed by Hekujin, but none of them exceeds 4%.
Compared with last year, there are two cash dividends declining: Mega Gold (2886) and Huanan Gold (2880). Judging from the current stock prices of these two financial stocks, the dividend yields are 3.85% and 2.27% respectively.
On the whole, the level of dividend payouts of state-owned financial holding companies and banks is a bit disappointing, because with the current yield of 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds at about 3.7%, this is not a good deal for foreign capital to cover Taiwan stocks in the near future. He said that our financial stocks do not have an absolute investment advantage, so we should pay attention to whether the covering buying of foreign capital will continue.
Private financial holdings also have the risk of shrinking interest rates
After reading the estimated dividend distribution figures of government-owned financial holdings and banks, I can’t help worrying about non-government-owned private financial holdings, because many private financial holdings have been affected by the Fed’s interest rate hike and falling bond prices this year. Valuation loss of financial assets. The evaluation losses of these financial assets will be placed in the deduction item of “other equity”. Please refer to Attachment 2 for the other equity losses of the five life insurance companies in the first half of the year.
Table 2. Other equity losses of 5 life insurance financial holding companies in the first half of the year
|Financial holding name||Accumulated EPS||Other equity in the first half of the year (100 million)|
|Cathay Gold (2882)||4.03||-3591|
|Fubon Gold (2881)||6.07||-1853|
|CITIC Gold (2891)||1.67||-885|
|Shin Kong Gold (2888)||0.71||-665|
Data compilation: Chen Weitai
Maybe some investment friends don’t quite understand,Why do you have to worry about not being able to pay interest even though you are making money? The reason is because the Financial Supervisory Commission stipulates that if other equity is negative, the company must first cover the book losses, and the remaining surplus can distribute dividends. Therefore, although Fubon Gold (2881) and Cathay Gold (2882) have so much EPS on their books, the actual amount that can be distributed may be greatly reduced.
In response to this matter, Mr. Li Changgeng, general manager of Cathay Financial Holdings, said that evaluating the use of capital reserves to distribute dividends will try to satisfy investors. However, it is still unknown whether the FSC will use the capital reserves of the financial holding company to increase dividends and the amount in the end.
The focus of entering the market may not be the dividend but the spread
so,If the purpose is to save stocks, the current stage may not be the best time to intervene. But looking at it from another angle, the worst time for financial stocks may be this year. If the stock price has a chance to correct downward, it cannot be ruled out as a good opportunity for medium and long-term investment.It’s just that when entering the market at this time, the focus may be on capital gains (spread), rather than dividend income! Either way, I wish you all the best in your investment!
About the Author_Chen Weitai
Engaged in the financial securities industry for more than 17 years, a qualified securities analyst, currently the chief investment officer of Zhongying Fortune, CMoney Quanyao financial consultant, financial chief writer, and a lecturer at the Securities Foundation and Zhongzheng Community University, this week, Yahoo financial column, Shangzhou Fortune Net special author.
The investment mentality first focuses on the long-short cycle of the overall economy, and combines fundamental stock selection and technical operations; it believes that “choosing the opportunity to enter the market” is the way to make profits in stock market investment. There are currently 2 books: “Trust me, you can’t make enough money”, “Taiwan stock market history”.
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