There are three years until an eventual primary begins that would lead to the election of the Republican candidate who will contest the presidency of the United States in 2024. And three years in politics is an eternity. But if the primary were today, Ron DeSantis would be well positioned.
No one can win a national election if you don’t have overwhelming support from your state base. Especially if that state is one of the three largest in the country and contributes 29 electoral votes in a general election.
This is why Florida always attracts national attention. In particular, when it is an open secret that both the state governor and the two federal senators from Florida (all Republicans) They have their sights set on the White House.
Republican pollster Tony Fabrizio conducted a hypothetical study on a primary with three contenders –Ron DeSantis, Marco Rubio and Rick Scott– among Republican registered voters in Florida. The result indicated that 64 percent would support DeSantis, against 12 percent who would support Rubio and 10 percent who would support Scott. The poll was conducted among 304 southern state Republicans and has a 5.6 percent margin of error.
The curious thing about the case is that the same study that Fabrizio carried out and that today gives DeSantis a 52-point advantage was done in July of last year. On that occasion, DeSantis led Rubio by just 11 points.
Fabrizio’s study is not the only one to demonstrate this trend. The also Republican pollster, Ryan Tyson, found that among members of the Florida Conservative Party, DeSantis was more popular than Donald Trump in the state. Something unusual considering that the former president won Florida last November by a greater margin than Barack Obama’s victory in Florida in 2008.
What’s giving DeSantis the edge? Probably an endorsement of the way he’s handled the pandemic, but there is more to it. Many believe that his closeness to the former president is helping him.
Fabrizio asked in the same poll who of the three state Republicans was closest to Donald Trump. 67 percent said DeSantis, 9 percent said Scott, and only 7 percent mentioned Rubio’s name. Let’s remember that Rubio was one of the senators who, although he voted in favor of acquitting the former president in the last political trial, he also voted in favor of certifying the victory of Joe Biden when the legality of the November votes was being disputed, the last January 6, events that ended with a violent mob taking over the capitol.
It is uncertain what will happen in the next few months, much less years. How much more Trump’s figure within the party will influence the party in the future is unknown, but for now DeSantis’s role among his Florida supporters appears to be strong. The first test to pass will be in 2022 when he must stand for reelection in Florida.