HONG KONG (Archyde.com) – Earlier this year, Shanghai went into a strict lockdown to combat the coronavirus pandemic. During that time, Claire Jian, 30, changed her life plan after witnessing the extraordinary rule of power by the Chinese authorities. She no longer wants to have children in China.
During the April-May lockdown, a hashtag meaning “we are the last generation” quickly went viral on Chinese social media and was subsequently censored.
The hashtag was inspired by a man who threw it at an official who visited his home in a protective suit and warned that he would be penalized for three generations of people for violating coronavirus rules. It was words.
“(That hashtag) really resonated with me,” Jiang said. The man’s words seemed like his own answer to the question of whether or not to have children.
“I don’t want my children to have to live an unstable life in a country where the government suddenly comes and does what they want,” said Jiang, who works in the media industry.
Historically, epidemics and economic instability have lowered fertility rates around the world.
But especially in China, an uncompromising “zero-corona policy” that severely restricted people’s lives and immediately contained the spread of the virus could have seriously damaged people’s desire to have children, multiple people said. demographers point out.
Some said they had lost their income, had no access to medical care or food, and others said that authorities forcibly entered their homes and forcibly took their families, including the elderly and children, to isolation centers. Testimonies were numerous during lockdowns in Shanghai and elsewhere.
Demographers say these events leave people feeling helpless in their lives and have a significant impact on their goals of becoming parents.
Yi Fuxian, a prominent demographer, said, “China is clearly a society of ‘big government, small family.’ The country’s zero-corona policy has led to zero economy, zero marriage, and zero birth.” do.
China’s National Health Commission and Family Planning Commission did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
Chinese officials have stressed that a zero-corona policy is necessary to save lives. China has so far officially reported only 5,226 deaths, despite millions of deaths worldwide since the pandemic began, it said.
A United Nations report released in July predicted that China’s total population of 1.4 billion could begin to decline as early as next year, and that India could replace China as the world’s most populous country. is doing.
UN experts said in their report that China’s population could fall by 109 million by 2050. This is more than three times the decrease compared to the previous forecast in 2019.
Another United Nations report on China said the pandemic had a long-term impact on first-born birth trends. Women are reluctant to have children due to financial concerns, unsubstantiated concerns about the impact of the COVID-19 vaccine on their fetuses, as well as the difficulties of going through pregnancy and raising an infant under severe restrictions. It is said that
“Couples who were thinking of having children next year are definitely putting them off. Couples who have not yet decided to have children will put them off indefinitely,” said the United Nations Population Fund’s China representative. Justin Coulson, who works at
Demographers expect births to hit a record low this year. Last year’s population of 10.6 million was 11.5% less than in 2020, but this year’s population is expected to fall below 10 million.
Official demographics for 2022 aren’t due until early next year, but some parts of China have recently released worrisome statistics.
In China’s third-most populous province, Henan, tests for congenital anomalies, a reliable proxy for fertility rates, fell 9.5% in the first six months of this year compared to the same period last year.
Cities in other regions are also seeing double-digit declines in birth certificate issuance. In Jiaozhou, a city in Shandong province with a population of one million, the number of issuances fell by 26% in the January-June period. In Hukou (Jiangxi Province), it fell sharply to 42%.
Some hints also appear in corporate income statements. Companies such as infant formula maker Australia Nutria Dairy, diaper maker Iinsee and cot and pram maker GoodBaby cited a drop in the number of births in China as a factor in their losses in the first half of the year. ing.
These figures do not yet reflect the impact of lockdowns in Shanghai and elsewhere in the first half of the year. But demographers say the impact of COVID-19 restrictions on births in 2020-21 is certainly showing in these performances, with further deterioration expected in 2022. To tell.
Yi, a demographer, compares data such as the number of infant tuberculosis vaccines, the number of marriage registrations, and the number of searches for maternal and infant products on China’s main search engine, Baidu. He estimates that the number of births due to the impact of the new corona will decrease by 1 million in 2021 and 2022, and that it may be even worse in 2023.
China, which had a one-child policy from 1980 to 2015, has officially admitted it is on the brink of population decline.
China’s (total special) fertility rate in 2021 was 1.16. It is below the standard of 2.1 for population stability in the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries, and is among the lowest in the world.
Over the past year or so, Chinese authorities have introduced measures to combat the declining birthrate, including tax cuts, extended maternity leave, expanded medical insurance, housing allowances, third-child subsidies, and a crackdown on expensive tutoring schools.
Still, a February survey by Yuwa Population Research, a think tank, found that Chinese women had the lowest desire to have children in the world.
Demographers say the measures taken so far are not enough to address concerns over coronavirus and economic growth, as well as issues such as high education costs, low wages and notoriously long working hours. point out that it is necessary.
According to Peter McDonald, a professor of demography at the University of Melbourne, gender disparity is an important underlying cause of low fertility. The World Economic Forum’s Gender Gap Index ranked China 102nd out of 146 countries.
Financial analyst Jahui Wu, 25, said society’s standards for what it means to be a “good mother” are strict.
“It seems much easier to be a ‘good father’. For me, a good career is more important.”
(Farah Master, Albee Zhang, Casey Hall, Translated by Ea Klelen)