LONDON (Archyde.com) – Russian President Vladimir Putin reiterated his readiness to use nuclear weapons in a televised address to the nation on September 21. This poses a much more pressing question to the world: Is Mr Putin serious or just bluffing?
Putin, of course, insists that he is not bravado. Meanwhile, Western politicians, diplomats and nuclear weapons experts are divided. But some say Putin could use small tactical nukes to avoid military defeat, protect his presidency, scare the West or force Ukraine to surrender. I was asked.
Putin referred to the more specific threat of the West using nuclear weapons against Russia. This could mean that Russia is considering escalating the situation after annexing four regions of Ukraine that it only partially occupies.
In fact, he has the world’s largest nuclear warhead, a new generation of hypersonic weapons, and ten times the Western arsenal of tactical nuclear weapons. That is why the United States and other NATO member countries are taking Putin’s remarks seriously.
In a speech on Wednesday, Putin said Russia would use “all available weapons” to defend its territory. “This is by no means a verbal threat, and those who are trying to blackmail us with nuclear weapons should know that the tide may turn and they may face the same fate,” he said.
Such outspoken rhetoric is at odds with the much more subtle threatening signals sent by Soviet leaders since the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis that brought the world to the brink of nuclear war.
U.S. National Security Advisor Sullivan warned the Biden administration on Wednesday that Putin’s remarks were “extremely serious” and that Russia’s use of nuclear weapons would have “catastrophic consequences”. .
So far, the U.S. government has not indicated a specific response plan in case of an emergency. However, most experts believe that the use of nuclear weapons by the United States could lead to “nuclear escalation,” so the odds of a large-scale conventional attack on Russian military installations with conventional weapons are greater.
CIA Director Byrnes said on CBS TV on the 27th that when asked whether Putin would go ahead with a nuclear attack, he said, “His threats must be taken very seriously.” intelligence department added that it had no real evidence that Mr Putin would move to use tactical nuclear weapons immediately.
If Putin really orders a nuclear attack on Ukraine, it will be the first time the U.S. military has used atomic bombs since the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki at the end of the Pacific War.
It is theoretically possible to launch relatively short-range, low-yield nuclear weapons aimed at Ukrainian military targets from either land, sea, or air, but their effectiveness is subject to debate among experts. .
Another option for Mr. Putin is to detonate a nuclear weapon somewhere in a remote no-man’s land or at sea, purely for the sake of intimidation.
Although the radiation damage from a small Russian tactical nuke would be limited to about a kilometer in circumference, the psychological and geopolitical consequences would be global.
“Putin is playing a high-stakes chicken game,” said Richard K. Betts, a professor of war and peace at Columbia University. “I don’t expect the United States to use nuclear weapons at all, but those are not necessarily reasonable odds.”
＜Irrational＞
At least two RC-135S “Cobra Ball” reconnaissance planes, which are tasked with observing ballistic missiles, were deployed on the 24th, showing that the United States is paying close attention to Russia’s nuclear weapons trends, according to aircraft tracking data. .
Lawrence Friedman, emeritus professor of warfare at King’s College London, said there is no evidence at this point that Russia is accelerating preparations for a nuclear strike, and that Washington will find out “pretty quickly” if it does.
Friedman said it would be wrong to downplay Mr Putin’s warnings about nuclear weapons, but he didn’t think it made sense for Mr Putin to use nuclear weapons to defend his newly annexed territories. “At a time when Ukraine has made it clear that it will not stop fighting, it is important to break the taboo that has been in place since August 1945 for such a small acquisition, and that even if the fighting ceases, these territories will be destroyed. It seems very strange to start a nuclear war, given how difficult it is to settle into a peaceful state.”
He added that any irrational use of nuclear weapons in this situation would inevitably be the emotional act of Mr Putin, who felt threatened and despaired.
Columbia University’s Betts also believes that the more favorable the situation is for Ukraine, the more likely it is that Putin will use nuclear weapons.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who previously did not pay much attention to the threat of a nuclear attack by Russia, warned on CBS TV on the 25th that “until yesterday it was just a fake threat, but now it can become a reality.” smudged.
(Reporters by Guy Faulconbridge and Andrew Osborn)