[Tokyo 1st Archyde.com]–Japan, which is facing a power shortage due to the intense heat, is being shaken by Russia’s new policy regarding the oil and natural gas development project “Sakhalin 2”. In order to maintain interests, it is necessary to apply to Russia again, which could be a stepping stone for Japan, which may become even more urgent in winter as Western countries unite over the situation in Ukraine.
Japanese officials were busy confirming information on the morning of the 1st when Russia’s sudden policy was communicated. The Japanese government, which regards Sakhalin 2 as an important energy security interest, and Mitsui & Co. and Mitsubishi Corporation, which actually have interests, both commented that they are confirming the contents of the presidential directive.
Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a presidential directive on the 30th to establish a new business entity that will take over the interests of Sakhalin 2. While state-owned gas giant Gazprom can maintain its interests, other investors need to reapply to the Russian government for approval of their interests within a month. If it is approved, it will continue to hold interests. Detailed conditions have not been clarified.
Japan is facing a power shortage due to the continuous heat wave. The tight supply and demand of electricity was becoming a social problem before the Upper House election on July 10, with the business community saying, “Why didn’t you take an earlier action?” (Kengo Sakurada, secretary general of the Keizai Doyukai). .. A government official close to the prime minister said, “How far can Russia keep pace with the G7 (seven major countries), aiming for the timing of tight electricity due to the heat wave, the decline in cabinet approval rating due to high prices, and just before the upper house election vote? Maybe they’re coming to try it out. “
About 9% of the liquefied natural gas (LNG) imported by Japan comes from Sakhalin 2. It is cheaper than procuring in the market, so if you give up your interests, the procurement price will rise. In the first place, with the global shortage of LNG due to the crisis in Ukraine, it is unclear whether it can be replaced. An executive of the Agency for Natural Resources and Energy explains, “Procurement of alternative LNG in the market will incur an additional burden of several trillion yen.” Electricity supply and demand is expected to become even more severe this winter, and “electricity supply and demand will be a tightrope walk until next year. In winter, we will rely on Sakhalin,” said an executive of the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry.
Japan, which imposes economic sanctions on Russia in cooperation with G7 countries, has prioritized its own interests in Sakhalin’s energy business. Koichi Hagiuda, the Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry, has repeatedly emphasized his policy of adhering to China, saying that if he gives up his interests, he will be in the hands of a third country. Even after Russia’s new policy was announced, the Agency for Natural Resources and Energy said, “We always assume the worst case that we cannot procure from Sakhalin, but the policy of not withdrawing will not change” (the above-mentioned executive). Was done.
However, there is a possibility that Japan’s attitude will be different externally if it continues to maintain its interests and if it reapplies to the Russian side. As the news that Russia intensified its offensive in eastern Ukraine and attacked the capital Kiu and the port city Odesa with missiles spread around the world, “It is a stepping stone to make a contract with Russia again,” said an energy industry official familiar with Sakhalin 2’s business. Points out. Japan “has the risk of being seen as closer to Russia,” said the person.
Mitsui & Co., which holds a 12.5% stake in Sakhalin 2,’s stock price fell 5.51% from the previous day. Mitsubishi Corporation, which has 10%, fell 5.38% year-on-year.
British Shell, which holds a 27.5% stake, announced its withdrawal in February, but the buyer has not yet been decided. Archyde.com reported in May that it was in talks with an Indian business alliance to sell its interests.
(Nobufumi Takemoto, Yuka Obayashi, edited by Nobuhiro Kubo)