Jonathan Holslag was invited to the show C’est pas tous les jours on Sunday on RTL TVI. The policy of the Flemish University of Brussels (VUB) is well known in Flanders. Author of ten books, he knows China particularly well.
The expert recently produced a report with his VUB team for the European Union. The study points to the danger of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, the possibility that the many Chinese commercial ships will be used for military purposes, but also an excessive dependence on Europe. Charges that China denies, as you can read at the end of this article.
Christophe Deborsu: Do you think the Communist People’s Republic of China will invade Taiwan? I repeat for our viewers, it is an island populated by non-communists, since mainland China became communist in 1949. An island about 180 kilometers from the Chinese coast. An attack?
Jonathan Holslag: It is always said that Ukraine is the starter and Taiwan will be the main course. Ukraine is just the entrance to a bigger stake in East Asia. I believe there is no doubt that China is trying to reunify Taiwan. She tried for several decades to do it in a rather economical way. To integrate Taiwan with commercial links, academic exchanges. Now China has concluded that it didn’t work. Chinese President Xi Jinping has asked the army to emphasize modernization and also to gain combat experience. So we come to a junction, a very, very precarious phase that we have to take seriously. I believe the chance of China using military force to reintegrate Taiwan is very significant.
Christophe Deborsu: What does that mean? Can we possibly think of a Third World War? Are we completely kidding ourselves by saying that? Because if on one side there is Russia with Ukraine, China and Taiwan.
Jonathan Holslag: One cannot imagine a conflict around Taiwan without a wider escalation, with the role of the United States, Japan and all the other countries around it. So it will give a regional crisis and probably also a global one. So yes, chess is vast. It is very difficult for us also to facilitate the dialogue of peace and reconciliation for example. Because the European Union, on this level, has no influence.
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Christophe Deborsu: In your report, you reveal that the Chinese boats, and there are a lot of them. About a third of the ships that sail on the planet are Chinese, they are all potentially warships. Explain to us.
Jonathan Holslag: This is a very important question. China already has a large naval fleet, which is expanding rapidly, but it is not enough to invade Taiwan. As Russia taught us in Ukraine, we need a significant logistical capacity. That’s why China is building all the civilian ships with a military role. So for example ships to bring cars are developed with wider, stronger steel beams to transport battle tanks.
Christophe Deborsu: So we could put tanks on these boats, which are not normally designed for that.
Jonathan Holslag: They are commercial ships, but they do maneuvers, exercises, with the army to simulate invasions of Taiwan and other small islands in the South China Sea.
Christophe Deborsu: You also say that China has shares, in particular of the port of Antwerp, but above all of the port of Zeebrugge, via a state company, Cosco Shipping. There is also talk of Alibaba in Liège. The Chinese are more and more present among us, are you afraid of that?
Jonathan Holslag: I believe the main danger is our own weakness. I believe in avoiding addiction. Also learn from the lessons of the Ukraine crisis. The situation now with energy, gas, etc. we have a bit the same thing with China. We are too dependent on products, on big investors. Europe is already talking about strategic autonomy. In Belgium too, we have to get there.
The reaction of the Chinese Embassy in Brussels
The Chinese ambassador was invited to share his point of view on the program C’est pas tous les jours on Sunday. He was unable to release himself, but the Chinese embassy sent us his reaction in writing. Here it is below.
The Chinese government has always requested Chinese companies to strictly abide by local laws and regulations in their overseas operations. The cooperation between Chinese shipping companies, such as COSCO Shipping, and Belgian companies and ports is purely commercial, the ships in service are all civilian ships, there is no so-called political or military objective. The claim that “every Chinese ship is a warship and its crew is mostly military personnel” is totally misinformation. This is a deliberate attempt to fabricate “China threat theory”, which is extremely irresponsible.
Since COSCO Shipping started its activities in Belgium, it has created, at the Zeebrugge container terminal alone, 360 direct jobs for the local community, its operations have considerably reinforced the international status of the ports of Belgium and have made even more a positive contribution to maintaining the stability of global supply and industrial chains.