For a long time, history seemed written: the presidential election of 2022 was going to be a return match from that of 2017 with a new duel between Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen. It was reckoning without the always unpredictable nature of such an election. The last few months have seen the emergence of the figure of far-right candidate Eric Zemmour, who has attracted voters from Marine Le Pen. But also the upward momentum, constant since her appointment in early December, of the candidate of the Les Républicains (LR) party, Valérie Pécresse. To the point that the right, which has experienced many difficult times since the defeat of François Fillon in 2017, has started to hope again. Emmanuel Macron, many of them repeat, has become “takeable” thanks to the establishment “of a French team” from the right around the candidate.
But if, two and a half months from the first round, Mme Pécresse seems to be able to match Marine Le Pen, she does not seem to be able, for the moment, to break away from the candidate of the National Rally (RN). Opinion studies follow one another, which place the two women neck and neck, with Emmanuel Macron still far ahead. A particularly visible ranking in the latest wave of the survey carried out by Ipsos-Sopra Steria in partnership with Cevipof and the Jean Jaurès Foundation for The world, published Saturday, January 22. Mmy Pécresse and Le Pen are exactly in the same place there with 15.5% of the voting intentions each (with an identical margin of error of more or less 0.8%) when the Head of State is in front with 25% (margin of error of plus or minus 1%).
If she wants to hope to be present in the second round of the presidential election, candidate LR will therefore first have to win this first duel. On the right, the observation has not escaped anyone even if it is initially, paradoxically, a source of satisfaction. “This situation means that we are in the game, while for a long time pollsters and commentators only gave Marine Le Pen the second round”, recalls Damien Abad, LR deputy for Ain and adviser to Valérie Pécresse. Patrick Stefanini, his campaign manager, also insists, above all, on the dynamic. In a month and a half, he recalls, « Mme Pécresse went from 10% to 15.5%, thus distancing Eric Zemmour”. For him, the LR champion succeeded in this comeback by achieving “the gathering of the right, and beyond by installing an image of credibility, courage and sincerity”. Like others within LR, he underlines how much the program on BFM-TV, Tuesday January 18, during which the candidate confronted the host Jean-Jacques Bourdin, accused of sexual assault, could be a highlight of the campaign.
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