Forecasts and comments. A good start - will it be possible to maintain momentum?

The main thing

The first trading day of the year passed on a positive note, setting an optimistic mood for the whole week. But you should not delude yourself – short-term factors largely influenced, while medium-term risks did not disappear anywhere. Optimism may persist for some time, but it cannot be called stable yet. Moreover, the external background is already deteriorating.

The turnover of trading at yesterday’s session amounted to only 12.7 billion rubles. according to the Moscow Exchange index and 14.3 billion rubles. across the broad market. This is approximately 2.5 times lower than the average values. For January weekends, this is quite a typical situation, since many market participants prefer to relax on these days.

MOEX Index came out of the trading range of recent weeks and marked the scrapping of the short-term downtrend. The signal was generated at low speeds, so it should be treated with some skepticism. If confirmed, the target in the medium term will be the level of 2250 p., although the instrument may well meet limited resistance from sellers in the region of 2200–2210 p.

American Indices last night we lost the acquisitions of the first half of the day, so today the external background may not be so favorable. Against the backdrop of a decline in oil, the energy sector suffered significant losses. Tech giants Apple and Tesla also looked weak, the fall of which had a tangible impact on the dynamics of the index and market sentiment in general.

Oil prices during yesterday’s session lost 4.4% amid risks from China. The increase in export quotas for petroleum products was regarded by the market as signs of weak domestic demand. In parallel, the dollar index jumped 1.2%, putting additional pressure on commodities. Shares of the oil and gas sector today may be under pressure.

Meanwhile, in February-March, the decline in production in Russia may coincide with the easing of anti-COVID restrictions in China. This could tighten the balance in the oil market and put upward pressure on prices. Therefore, the medium-term outlook on oil remains moderately positive.

Russian ruble weakened in response to lower oil, reflecting fears of a narrowing trade surplus in 2023. Meanwhile, current forecasts do not yet give reason to expect a new rally in the dollar, euro and yuan. All three currencies, paired with the ruble, show a flat trend, the boundaries of which may remain relevant on the horizon of the next weeks. At the same time, volatility may gradually decrease, contributing to the narrowing of the corridors. For USDRUB, possible fair levels may lie in the range of 68–70 rubles.

papers in focus

Mechel-up (+5.8%). Papers rose for the fourth day in a row against the backdrop of strong price dynamics for coking coal in China. Contracts on the Dalian Commodity Exchange increased by 35% in 2 months. The dollar against the ruble grew by 16% over the same period. This encourages optimism about company profits and perf dividends.

However, there is no certainty about dividends. In 2022, net capital under RAS was not enough, and the company refused even partial payments. In the absence of reporting, it is currently impossible to reliably estimate the potential volume of dividends in 2023 and the prospects for receiving them.

In the short term, after four days of growth and renewal of three-month peaks, a correction is brewing. Although in a thin market, the upward momentum may well drag on a little more.

Sberbank-ao (+0.45%). Bank shares are now the most simple and understandable idea on the Russian market, which can gradually join more and more participants. Their share in People’s portfolio Moscow Exchange increased by 3 p.p. in October-November. to 22.1% and could increase even more in December. The bank ended 2022 with a profit and shows strong results on a monthly basis, so dividends are possible as early as the summer of 2023.

A classic breakout formation has formed on the daily chart. Overcoming the resistance zone 144–145 rubles. may be impulsive. The only thing missing is a catalyst. It could be the bank’s report for December, which could be published next week.

Subsidiaries of Russian Grids today is the last day of trading with dividends for 9 months. 2022 Dividend yield fluctuates widely, reaching up to 12% on individual chips. Approaching cutoff may contribute to increased speculative activity in the papers.

Outwardlyth background

Asian markets are trading in positive territory today. Futures for the S&P 500 index are close to previous levels, Brent oil is up 0.05% and is around $82.2.

Quotes

Stock Indices
Ind. Moscow Exchange (IMOEX2) 2171.4 (+0.8%)
RTS 963.1 (-0.77%)
S&P 500 3824,14 (-0,4%)
Currency
USD/RUB 71,14 (+1,77%)
EUR/RUB 74,8 (+0,67%)
CNY/RUB 10,11 (+2%)