Chinese President Xi Jinping (left) and Russian President Vladimir Putin. (File photo) Photo: Dazhi Image/Associated Press
Anders Fogh Rasmussen, former secretary-general of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), said a united Western response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine could prompt China to delay plans to invade Taiwan.
Rasmussen told Newsweek that this is one of the reasons why the Chinese are uncomfortable with Russia’s attack on Ukraine, “because China has learned that in fact the West can come together and send arms to Ukraine and fight against Russia. Implement severe and targeted sanctions.” He also said that the Chinese authorities are also aware that if they use force against Taiwan, they may be treated the same as Russia.
Rasmussen was NATO secretary general from 2009 to 2014, having previously served as prime minister of Denmark for eight years. In addition, he hosted the two-day Copenhagen Democracy Summit from June 9 to 10, and President Tsai Ing-wen was also invited to deliver a video speech at the summit. Since Russian President Vladimir Putin launched a full-scale military campaign against Ukraine more than 100 days ago, observers have speculated whether the Kremlin’s risky move would encourage Beijing to attempt a similar invasion of Taiwan.
The United States has pledged to provide tens of billions of dollars in military aid to the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, but the Biden administration has also made it clear that the U.S. military will not participate in a direct conflict with the Russian army. For years, Washington has maintained the principle of “strategic ambiguity” on the issue of China’s invasion of Taiwan, until last month, when US President Joe Biden threw a shock bomb during a visit to Tokyo, expressing his willingness to intervene militarily when China uses force against Taiwan.
Biden was asked by the media in Tokyo on May 23 whether he was willing to intervene militarily to defend Taiwan in the event of a conflict in the Taiwan Strait. He answered “yes” and said “that’s a promise we made”, drawing widespread attention from the outside world. However, the White House immediately clarified that the U.S. policy would remain unchanged, and Biden said the next day that Washington had not given up the “strategic ambiguity” it has long pursued toward Taiwan. U.S. media reports pointed out that the reason behind Biden’s remarks is related to Ukraine, and this also shows that Washington must show its determination in the face of China’s increasing pressure on Taiwan. Biden said, “We can use force to seize ( Taiwan) is an inappropriate idea, which is bound to disrupt the entire region and lead to a situation similar to Ukraine, so it will create a greater burden.”
In the end, Rasmussen believes that Biden’s blurb will now be an important factor in Beijing’s consideration of the Taiwan issue. He said, “Biden’s remarks came from the heart. This is the second time he has said that if Taiwan is attacked by China, the United States will help defend Taiwan. So for the Chinese, the situation can be described as very delicate.” Rasmus Sen also emphasized, “The most important thing is that the Ukraine war has delayed China’s possible attack on Taiwan. But Beijing has not given up on attacking Taiwan by force.”