Bitcoin (BTC) Currently trading over $ 16,200. We are certainly still far from 100,000 USD, but the price of BTC has grown by more than 125% since the start of the year – it opened 2020 at around 7,200 USD.
The year is not over yet and Bitcoin could very well reach $ 20,000, registering growth of over 177% in one year.
If the price of BTC opened 2021 to at least $ 20,000, then BTC would need to register 400% growth – double its 2020 performance by closing at $ 20,000 – to reach 100,000 USD by the end of 2021.
Are Eric Wall and Ari Paul right in putting $ 1 million and $ 3 million on the table against Stock-to-Flow forecasts?
The Stock-to-Flow de PlanB predicted a Bitcoin to 288,000 USD before 2022.
An executive manager of the investment fund Arcane Assets, Eric Wall, announced in a tweet on November 12 that he was ready to bet $ 1 million against these predictions – John McAfee he had bet on a Bitcoin to $ 1 million in 2020.
If the price of BTC does not meet 50% of the forecast S2F by 2025 – so we still give a margin of 4 years compared to the agenda of the S2F – Wall will pay $ 1 million to whoever bet against him.
For his part, the financial manager of BlockTower Capital, Ari Paul, pledged to give the same bet a 3: 1 odds against the S2F, which means the winner could get $ 3 million if they wager $ 1 million.
They are smart
The S2F predicts an upward trajectory for the price of Bitcoin due to the continuous reduction of its supply.
PlanB estimate the price of Bitcoin will be in the $ 100,000 – $ 288,000 range by December 2021.
Some analysts consider that the S2F is not a reliable indicator of the long-term price of Bitcoin.
Paul indicated that a simple arbitrage transaction would allow him to ensure not to lose his money regardless of the winner of the bet: according to him, it suffices to buy Bitcoins and make a 3: 1 short sale.
Some argue on the contrary that if the model turns out to be correct, the 2 men will have to pay a lot of money, because the price of Bitcoin will then have reached astronomical heights.
PayPal should help mass adoption of Bitcoin. Long-term dollar devaluation should benefit BTC. The mad bettor who would bet on a BTC registering 400% growth in 1 year could very well outweigh the “rational” skeptics.