Frankfurt A supply bottleneck, a price increase of over 40 percent and a new all-time high: gold has had a spectacular year. Despite heavy corrections, the precious metal was one of the most profitable commodity investments, says Raphael Scherer, managing director of the gold trader philoro. “If you look back, you could think that 2020 was an insane bull market for gold.” But the impression is deceptive: “That is only partly true. It wasn’t a bull market at all for the jewelry industry or the central banks, ”said Scherer.
The gold price rally was largely driven by strong investor demand. Scherer expects demand from other important players in the precious metals market to return in the coming year. The gold dealer is therefore optimistic about the new year: “In terms of price levels, gold has a medium-term potential of up to $ 2,300 per ounce.”
Hans-Günter Ritter, long-time chief dealer at the Hanau Heraeus group, also expects the jewelry industry to recover as soon as the lockdowns in Europe are over. He is therefore “positive, but not euphoric” on the precious metals market in the new year. He also certifies that gold has clear upside potential. “It cannot be ruled out that the price of gold will slightly exceed its all-time high in the coming year.” If the forecast is correct, at a current price of around 1870 dollars an ounce, a return of twelve percent is possible.
In order for these expectations to be fulfilled, the two factors listed must come together: The demand from the jewelry industry, which in some years will decrease over half of world production, would have to stabilize. At the same time, investor demand should also remain high.
Experts are optimistic
There are good arguments for both factors: For example, Stefan Breintner, fund manager and precious metals expert at asset manager DJE Kapital: “In the coming year, due to the economic situation, we can expect better jewelry demand – especially from the two most important countries, China and India.” Both markets would have historical slumps of 43 and 57 percent in the first nine months of this year.
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