Hezbollah’s defeat in the elections may push it to escalate with Israel

Despite the varying estimates of Israeli media and research centers regarding the impact of the results of the Lebanese elections on Hezbollah’s internal standing, they agreed that these results increase the chances of the party heading for an escalation against Tel Aviv.

The Jerusalem Post newspaper pointed out today, Wednesday, that the decline in the representation of the Free Patriotic Movement, the main Christian ally of Hezbollah, in the wake of the recent elections, reduces the party’s ability to secure the umbrella that the movement provides to justify its continued control of Lebanon.

The newspaper warned that the decline in the representation of “Hezbollah” and its allies would contribute to pushing the party to ignite an escalation in the Middle East.

She pointed out that Hezbollah deliberately launched a drone to penetrate the occupied Palestinian airspace on the day after the elections; It is the plane that the occupation army announced to have shot down.

According to the newspaper, “Hezbollah” continues to act with complete freedom in southern Lebanon, and could “heat up” against Israel based on “the pretext of defending Lebanon.”

She said that the party might tend to weaken the influence of what she described as “moderates and reformers” who might push towards a different path in Lebanon, claiming that the party could target them with assassinations.

As for “Haaretz” newspaper, it considered that the loss of “Hezbollah” and its allies’ absolute majority in Parliament could lead to exacerbating differences that could end in violent internal confrontations, which could lead to a confrontation with Israel.

In an analysis prepared by its commentator for Arab affairs, Zvi Barel, the newspaper said that the outbreak of internal confrontations could push Hezbollah to escalate against Israel out of its keenness to “show its strength” to enhance its position in Lebanon.

On the other hand, Jacques Neria, who worked as a political advisor to former Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin and held leadership positions in the Military Intelligence Division “Aman”, believes that the results of the Lebanese elections, although they led to the loss of “Hezbollah” and its allies, the parliamentary majority, which makes it difficult too much to form a government or to agree on choosing a new president; However, these results did not affect the orientations of “Hezbollah”, which will remain “a major threat to Israel,” according to him.

In an interview with him on the website of the Jerusalem Center for Public and State Affairs, for which he works as a researcher, Neria pointed out that Hezbollah ran in the Lebanese elections under two main slogans that belong to the relationship with Israel; They are his commitment not to give up his weapons as a requirement to defend Lebanon, and his pledge not to allow Israel to explore for gas in the “Block 9” area, at the borders of the economic waters of Lebanon and Palestine, unless Lebanon is able to extract gas from the region.

Neria stressed that “Hezbollah” is not looking for a settlement in everything related to the dispute over gas reserves in the economic waters, pointing out that the party believes that the area belongs to Lebanon and that Beirut is not required to accept a settlement that detracts from its right to the place.

According to Neria, during the election campaign, “Hezbollah” created the impression that southern Lebanon is under its absolute authority, which means that any outcome of these elections will not affect this reality.

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