In times of high inflation, the minimum expected from a investment in pesos is that when withdrawing the money the profit obtained at least compensate price increases for the period. That is the paste or -ideally- beat inflation.
The traditional fixed termFor much of the past year, failed to comply that requirement since people made a deposit; Y 30 days Later, when he recovered his capital plus interest, with all that money he managed to buy less products and services than before.
Even though the rates increased month after month, inflation climbed even more and the same saver lost purchasing power. Recently, however, the equation changedand this popular investment offered by banks began to recover attractiveness.
What happened? That monthly inflationalthough it continues at alarming levels, descended some steps with respect to the peaks of 7,4% y 7% it had reached in July and August 2022. In November the Consumer Price Index advanced 4,9% and in December, according to the experts, it would have been close to 5.5%.
But the interest rates of the fixed terms, for the moment, they did not accompany that slowdown. Still as high as September and now they are clearly above expected inflation, at least for the first two months of 2023.
Traditional fixed terms: what is the going rate and how much do they pay in concrete amounts?
Since September 2022for provision of the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (BCRA), banks are obliged to reward with a nominal annual rate (TNA) of 75% small savers to immobilize their money for 30 days or more.
In specific amounts, according to the online simulator of Banco Nación, a fixed term at 30 days is generating a effective yield of 6,16%(last July, on the other hand, the effective monthly rate was 4.35%).
This means, with rounded values, that for example:
- who deposits $ 20.000 will get $ 21.233 in a month: he will have won $ 1.233.
- who deposits $ 50.000 may withdraw $ 53.082 in a month: he will have won $ 3.082.
- who deposits $ 100.000 Bill to $ 106.164 in a month: he will have won $ 6.164.
Viewed another way, with performance goals determined:
- For win $2,000 in 30 days you have to deposit $ 32.445.
- For win $5,000 in 30 days you have to invest $ 81.112.
- For win $10,000 in 30 days you have to put $ 162.223.
How much could fixed terms beat inflation, according to economists?
As people usually make this investment for only 30 days and renews it each time -if it suits you-, the key is to compare the monthly profit of the fixed term with inflation. But not past inflation but with the future: what is expected for him short term, for the following month.
And what do they say? latest predictions? The 38 consultants, banks and study centers surveyed by the BCRA in its latest Survey of Market Expectations (REM), carried out end of decemberthey calculated that inflation closed at 5.5% that monthand they foresaw that it will be 5.6% in January and of the 5.7% in February.
So, if there are no surprises and that ends up being met, a fixed term established now and withdrawn within a month effectively would serve as a “refuge”since it will yield a 6,16% monthly. Almost half a point more.
“Today, taking into account the drop in inflation, the rates of the common fixed term they are attractive”, considered the economist Sebastian Menescaldidirector of the consulting firm EcoGo, where they project that for January and February the inflation rate will have a “5% floor“, and that only in March would it be a little higher.
“With a horizon of short termnow it suits more the common fixed term than other investments with returns tied to inflation, such as the UVA fixed term. It was like that in the last two months and we estimate that this month will be tooadded Menescaldi.
Fixed terms UVA: what is the alternative that guarantees maintaining purchasing power?
Now, for those who distrust these forecasts and fear that inflation could hit a unexpected jump During the summer, an available alternative is to bet on the UVA fixed terms, which they claim to win slightly to inflation, no matter how much it ends up being. Although they require leaving the money more time.
The UVA fixed terms are those that work with the Purchasing Value Units. When constituting them, the weights are converted at the price of the day in UVAs, which are a kind of “anti-inflation” currency whose value adjusts daily according to the CER coefficient, at the rate set by the Inflation index of the INDEC.
The minimum term It is 90 daysinstead of 30. And after those three months, the UVAs are converted back to pesos at the current price, which will be greater than the initial.
How much older? Enough for exactly offset the increases of prices of the quarter and that the silver have not lost purchasing power.
The value of the grape, for example, increased 19,18% in the last three monthsand also updated the money of those who made a deposit in UVA last October 9 for 90 days, to withdraw it just this January 9th. if they were $ 100.000they became $ 119.180.
But in addition, the bank assures whoever makes a UVA fixed term a actual profitsince it not only returns the amount adjusted for inflation but also adds a small interest rate.
What is the difference between the common UVA fixed term and the precancellable one, and which one is appropriate?
The most attractive option today is the precancelable because, if the deadline is met 90 daysthe banks must compensate the inflation of the quarter and a additional fee of at least one 1% annual.
Furthermore, if the saver suddenly needed use the money, from day 30 You have a chance to ask for it back. And in that case, the fixed term will have paid as if it had been done in the traditional way with a TNA of 71% (4 points less to the current one).
Choosing the common UVA fixed term, on the other hand, is less convenient today since the money is deposited Yes or yes for 90 days and the additional fee is lower. For the minimum term, instead of UVA + 1%many banks offer to add only 0.1%, 0.25% or at most 0.5%, and in some cases nothing (0%).
MDG