“When they ask me how much the dollar is going to come out in December (…), the best I can do is suppose that if nothing happens in the next few months it should accompany inflation and therefore, anything that today comes out 160 pesos, 50 % of inflation through, it will cost 240 pesos, “said economist Martín Tetaz.
“But assuming that nothing will happen in our country in 12 months is not very realistic; what happens is that nobody can guess what or what the ‘shocks’ (blows) will be,” he added.
On Monday, the CNV ordered the reduction of the parking period (permanence of portfolio assets) from 48 to 24 hours for MEP dollar operations in search of normalizing the market; but, on the other hand, it imposed new restrictions on the operation of the dollar CCL, by limiting weekly sales of securities in dollars per account to 100,000 nominals.
“At a time when the Central Bank controls the rise in the dollar, it would be very good if parking disappeared directly, which would generate less speculation and the bond market would be released mainly, since they are instruments that serve to hedge against the devaluation and inflation, “explained a private economist.
Meanwhile, investors are keeping an eye on the news surrounding the government’s negotiations with the IMF. This Wednesday, as published by Ámbito, the administration of President Alberto Fernández is seeking the endorsement of the IMF to promote a tax reform that raises the tax burden, simplifies the tax system and raises the penalties for evaders. If this endorsement is available, the proposal would be launched for consideration by Congress.
He “solidarity” dollar, which includes the COUNTRY Tax of 30% and the advance on Profit account of 35%, rises 25 cents to $ 150.45, after registering yesterday its first decrease in almost two months, while the retail average advances 15 cents to $ 91.18, according to the average number of banks, which the BCRA reports. At Banco Nación, meanwhile, the retail ticket -without taxes- closed stable at $ 90.50.
The Wholesale currency amounts 10 cents to $ 85.65 under the strict regulation of the BCRA, which yesterday ended another day with a buyer balance. According to market sources, it raised more than US $ 55 million, to accumulate between Monday and Wednesday net purchases for almost US $ 300 million.
In this way, the BCRA chained 22 consecutive days without currency sales.
In this context, the gross international reserves of the BCRA exhibited an increase of US $ 56 million this Wednesday and closed at US $ 39,765 million.
He blue dollar it drops $ 1 this Thursday to $ 159, according to surveys by Ámbito in caves of the Buenos Aires city.
Thus, the gap between the informal ticket and the official wholesaler is reduced to 85.9%, the lowest level in three weeks, after touching 97% at the end of 2020. Last week, the blue had given up $ 5.
The parallel, which had fallen $ 5 in the first five business days of the year, accumulates a retracement of $ 2 this week.
The informal listing seemed to find a momentary ceiling of $ 169 on Monday of last week, first business day of the month. From that level reached in the middle of the day, the offer reappeared and lowered the parallel to a low of $ 160 between Tuesday and Wednesday.
After touching a peak of $ 195 in late October 2020, the blue began to travel a downward path that took the price to $ 146 on December 10. From there, as a result of a renewed demand for Dollars from the private sector as a hedge before the end of the year, it resumed its upward trend. As a result of this behavior, in December it exhibited an increase of $ 11 (7.1%).