How to interpret the drop in the incidence rate?

Since the impressive peak at the end of July, with record incidence rates of 758 positive cases per 100,000 inhabitants, all indicators of viral circulation of the Covid-19, as well as hospital pressure, are on the decline, communicates the Regional Health Agency
Paca during his weekly update.

“But it is a decrease which is extremely slow with an incidence rate which is still too high”, recalls Professor Michel Carles, infectious disease specialist at the CHU de Nice. Tuesday, according to the Covid tracker site and data from Public Health France, 84 people were positive for the coronavirus per 100,000 inhabitants, “we are far from the 3 cases in June 2020 or the 15 cases in June 2021”, underlines the doctor. He adds: “When we come back to these figures, we can say that we are out of the fourth wave. There, now, it is too early to make this kind of conclusions because we continue to have Covid entries in the hospital. Last night alone, we had two. “

Don’t forget the barrier gestures

So how to interpret these last figures? The teacher replies: “These are the effects of several factors. The variant is less deleterious than previously thought. Then, the evolutions of this epidemic phenomenon work by cycle. And inevitably, the vaccination campaign which plays a role in this decline in viral circulation. “

In the department, according to data from Public Health France, 901,937 people had received at least one dose of vaccine on Monday evening, which represents 82.18% of the population. For Professor Carles, it is important to remember that “vaccination, by itself, cannot solve all the problems”. He is convinced that the health pass allows the population to motivate themselves to take precautions but that we must not “forget the barrier gestures”. “We have to wait before wanting to lift all health restrictions,” he says. The episodes experienced previously force us to remain humble and cautious about this situation. “

Especially since the Nice metropolis remains in the top of the cities most affected by the coronavirus, in particular “because of its attractiveness and the fact that it is a city of passage”. The incidence rate is 103 infected people per 100,000 inhabitants, just behind Marseille. This is practically twice as high as the national average, which stands at 59. The alert threshold, set by the government is still at 50. The doctor from Nice says that “no one is able to say currently whether this health crisis will stop ”and insists on the“ precautions ”to be taken to avoid experiencing the same situation as last fall.

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