In Poland, the simulation of the Russian invasion turns into a fiasco

The defeat would have been even more bitter than the lightning invasion of 1939 by Germany, if the military deployment had not been a simple exercise, intended to test the capacity of the Polish army to resist external aggression of the Russia.

The operation, simulated along the eastern border of Poland, consisted of holding the lines of defense for a period of at least 22 days.

Broken in four days

But these great maneuvers, entitled «Winter 20» (Winter 2020), obviously ended in a fiasco. At the end of this virtual war, the Russians had reached the banks of the Vistula, and besieged Warsaw in just four days, reveal several news sites, such as Interia, while this kind of training is in principle ultra-confidential.

Strategic ports would have been blocked or occupied. “We confirm to you that the winter exercise itself, its progress and its conclusions are classified information. Any answer to questions, positive or negative, is therefore impossible ”, said the defense ministry.

President Andrzej Duda nevertheless wanted to avoid any excessive dramatization. “I think this exercise is the first big lesson for us, which allows us to correct ourselves and develop new elements”, he declared alongside Minister of Defense Mariusz Błaszczak. “You have to train to achieve perfection”, underlined the latter.


This bad result, if it is proven, calls into question the command, the strategy of military equipment, and indirectly questions the game of alliances, while the Polish army and its 140,000 soldiers are integrated into NATO. In principle, the strategy adopted is to inflict maximum loss on the Russian forces, and to delay their advance, to make them vulnerable to a subsequent counterattack with the allies. However, the battalions on the front line would have been very quickly broken up, resulting in 60 to 80% of human losses depending on the units.

The aim of the maneuver was also to test the effectiveness of a new weapon system, essentially bought in the United States, even before having been delivered: Patriot anti-aircraft systems, missiles HIMARS, and F-35 multipurpose fighter jets. Equipment which should in principle become fully operational in ten years.

For its part, Russia is also engaged in this kind of simulation exercise. In a major maneuver called “Caucasus 2020”, carried out last September, Moscow had made a show of force to NATO.


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