In July 2022, inflation confirms its upward trend by increasing once again to reach the rate of 8.2% after 8.1% in June, 7.8% in May and 7.5% in April. This increase is mainly explained, according to the National Institute of Statistics (INS), ” by the acceleration in the rate of increases in the prices of food products (11% against 9.5% in June), prices for the furniture, household items and routine household maintenance group (10.6% against 9.7% in June) and prices for the leisure and culture group (7.5% against 6.3% in June) ».
In July 2022, in fact, consumer prices increased by 1% after 0.7% in June and 0.9% in May. The INS further explains that ” this increase is mainly related to the acceleration in the prices of the group of food and beverage products by 1.9% and the prices of the group of furniture, household articles and routine maintenance of the home by 1.1% and the prices of the group of leisure and culture services by 1.5%, as well as prices for restaurant and hotel services by 1.4% ».
– Everything is increasing, and it’s not always the fault of local operators
Everything increases, each month, at small rates, but which add up to large totals for the year. Year-on-year food price increases are now in double digits. Prices, if they are not directly impacted by other production inputs, in particular the cost of energy, are affected by import costs, scarcity and disturbances, such as edible oils. The INS says, ” the core inflation rate (excluding food and energy) fell to 6.8% after 7.2% the previous month ».
And if it is not the prices supervised by the State, and which are rarely respected despite the efforts of the economic control services, it is those of free products (not supervised) which increase by 9.3% over one year. ” Free food products increased by 13.1% against 0.3% for food products at controlled prices “, confirms the INS. For several of these free products, generally imported or made from imported components, their prices suffer from imported inflation.
In July 2022, the inflation rate increases slightly to 8.2% and this is the largest increase since the year 2000, as the curve in the cover photo shows, and no one cares, neither the head of the whole state, nor the head of government and his Minister of Commerce talk about it, or devote any meeting to it. And besides, what could they all do when the sidebar is the incongruous portion of prices, when it’s a country that imports food and goes into debt to pay the salaries of its civil servants!
The academic and economist, Moez Laabidi, declared Wednesday August 10, 2022 on the radio Express fm, that “ the inflation that Tunisia suffers from is caused by the state of public finances, the supply system and energy prices “. Suffice to say that Tunisia does not control any of the causes of the evil it suffers. The remedy either, despite all the media cinema of the head of the entire Tunisian state.
What is certain is that this phenomenon of rising inflation is not just Tunisian. In the USA, where the inflation rate was 9.1% last June, the Biden administration is preparing an anti-inflation budget. In France, it should reach 5.5%. Unheard of since 1985. In Egypt, it was 14.7% last June, and in Algeria 11.7% in June too. In many of these countries, the State intervenes through direct aid. In Tunisia, there has been talk for several months of a rationalization of compensation and perhaps its abolition.
– Soon another increase in the key rate of the BCT. Says Hashemi Alaya
According to the economist Hachemi Alaya, questioned by Africanmanager on the advisability of a new intervention of the BCT by raising the key rate (TD), “ yes of course, and I even think that she will “. And when asked about the impact of this rise in the TD, he replies that ” it is a mistake to believe that investment depends on the rate of interest. The latter has been in free fall for 20 years in Tunisia, and even when interest rates were very low “. And the renowned economist to specify that ” the BCT increases the TD, officially to fight against inflation, but in reality for something more important and which it does not declare, and which is to protect the Tunisian Dinar, to first control capital flight and then stabilize Tunisia’s debt level which is more than 2/3 in foreign currency », and by the way, « reduce household demand and consumption, because to fight inflation, we must act on demand “Concludes Hashemi Alaya, realistically Cassandra in spite of himself.
Academic and former member of the Board of the BCT, Fethi Nouri estimates as for him in a Post fb, that “ inflation can be contained by unconventional monetary mechanisms. We await the decisions of the Central Bank soon to know the correctness of the trend and whether the situation is under control or not after the recent rise in interest rates, the results of which appear after at least thirty days. In my estimation, the Bank will not abandon the use of available mechanisms, at the discretion of specialists within the Bank. My personal opinion, is that resorting to new mechanisms would be a correct decision if this approach is possible. “. Will he be heard, and will the BCT be able to do otherwise?
Recall that on May 17, 2022, the BCT had already decided to raise its key rate by 75 basis points, to 7%. Will she do it again. Between the hammer of the debt, which will become even more important when the IMF says yes, and the anvil of the purchasing power of the Tunisian, the choice is generally easy, even if it will have a bitter taste!
– archyde news-