Intractability, pessimism, and disturbing scenarios in the presidential file, and the movement of delegates towards Lebanon

A month has passed since the vacuum, and the parties to the presidential filibuster have cut off all paths to internal solutions and annihilated all potential for consensus. In this way, the vacuum will swallow months and months of spinning and empty spinning in the cycle of tension, escalation, and complexity. As for the inevitable result of this trend, the country will slide more and more into the depths of the disastrous abyss.

No patching or pacing

The confrontational and divisive incidents that unfolded throughout the first month of emptiness formed, in the last hours, a material for discussion and evaluation, in a “closed meeting” related to the presidential file, in which politicians and deputies participated. According to Al-Jumhuriya’s information, the conclusion of the discussion and evaluation was frightening, and it included:

First, that the situation in Lebanon is beginning to touch economic, financial and social nadir, and the moment of the great collision is approaching, and with the continuation of the political chaos as it is, obstructing the election of the President of the Republic first, and subsequently to put the country back on the track of institutional regularity, the great disaster will occur, and its repercussions portend negatives and exhaustions. Harder, tougher, and bigger than we can imagine.

Secondly, the confrontational and divisive facts have proven, beyond any doubt, that the reality of the country, which is rampant in its turmoil, no longer has any hopes, patches, or painkillers of the short-acting “political Panadol” type. Rather, it requires radical solutions whose conditions have not yet matured. The radical solution is postponed, but it is what will happen no matter how long it takes.

Third, the causes of obstruction are multiple, stemming from the chasm separating the internal components, and the desire of some to deepen it further, as well as from the expansion of the area of ​​imaginary bulge among some parties. The options have become settled, the fronts have become open, and the alignments have become drawn between clashing wills that attract the presidential file and divert it from its obligatory passage by agreeing on a president. It is never taken into account that these causes are covered somewhere by an external factor that charges them.

Fourth, correcting the presidential path now requires a higher and stronger will that imposes a solution and eradicates all causes of obstruction. This will lies within the Lebanese interior, and the Lebanese can formulate it and participate in it, because they are alone in their crisis. It is in the hands of the Lebanese to reach a cold solution, before they reach a situation in which they all become fuel for the holocaust of the economic and financial crisis.

Fifth, the fatal error lies in the widening of the bets on the outside, not on the basis of reaching a consensual solution on the presidential file, but rather a solution based on the dominance of one faction over another. If someone is really betting on an “external preponderant” in order to intervene and impose a solution in Lebanon for his benefit and a president of a certain color, then perhaps his initiative to take a quick look at the map of the priorities and interests of foreign countries may make him certain that the external priority is Ukrainian, and therefore there is no trace of Lebanon. in that map. In addition, all the stances issued by brotherly and friendly countries, outwardly as well as inwardly, are saying: “Untie your presidential and political thorns with your hands, we will help you.” This saying constitutes the prior answer to any invitation to an international conference on Lebanon.

Sixth, the Arab climate is mostly supportive of stability in Lebanon and the revival of its institutions. However, the basis in this regard is that Arab countries that have a presence and an active role in Lebanon historically have not made up their minds and expressed clear neutrality regarding the presidential file. And there are those who attribute the veto to key candidates. Perhaps this is what some parties take as a cover to proceed with the escalation.

Seventh, as evidenced by the negative interaction with the consensual dialogue initiative that Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri was preparing for, there is no room for such dialogue, as long as the major Christian powers refuse to sit among themselves at the table of dialogue and discussion. There are indications that the French and Vatican positions encourage this trend.

Eighth, as long as internal dialogue is impossible, and as long as dialogue abroad is not on the table, reliance remains on the “cartridge” of President Nabih Berri, which he will launch in the presidential spheres in the coming days, in terms of holding separate consultations in an effort to remove the presidential file from the neck of the bottleneck of obstruction.

And if these consultations may constitute their advantages if they are achieved, based on any French or non-French external effort that accompanies them, then the lesson is not in conducting consultations for consultations only, as there is no longer time to waste, but rather that they are preceded by a serious will on the part of the internal parties concerned with the presidential file. In partnership with the spirit of openness and the desire to build a consensual ground for the production of a president. In the absence of this will, waiting for positives and understandings is in vain.

Diplomatic pessimism

At this time, it was learned that the diplomatic movement related to the presidential file has been marred by some momentum in recent days, as it is taking place at an intense pace away from the limelight, and has so far included many political levels on both sides of the internal division.

Reliable sources revealed part of that movement, and told Al-Jumhuriya, that the diplomats’ approach to the presidential scene in Lebanon is characterized by gloom, as they are talking about great dangers to Lebanon from the continuation of the vacuum in the presidency. One of the European ambassadors revealed, in front of a senior politician, data that he described as very dangerous, summarized by the fear of dramatic developments that threaten stability in Lebanon at all levels, and does not exclude even the security level. It quoted him as saying what he literally said: “Lebanon’s situation has become like a bus without a driver, its passengers falling from the top of a cliff to a deep cliff. Lebanon, in its current reality, is facing disturbing scenarios, and therefore swift Lebanese action is required to rectify them.”

According to the sources, what the Western diplomatic movement stresses is that the international community is concerned with preserving the stability of Lebanon, and this is certainly secured by the structure of a complete state in Lebanon, both presidential and governmental, and this is certainly the responsibility of the Lebanese and what they should strive to achieve. Accordingly, there is no idea in the agenda of any of the foreign countries, especially the countries friendly to Lebanon, to exert any pressure or attempt to bring about changes, or to dictate to the Lebanese interior a unilateral settlement. Lebanon is a very delicate and sensitive situation in its political and sectarian composition and balances. Hence, the time is still available for the Lebanese forces, without excluding any of them, to resolve the option of agreeing to elect a president for the republic, and this consensus will inevitably be accompanied by the friends of Lebanon by launching an effort in support of this approach, and following it up with steps to assist in the following benefits, especially at the level of government and tasks. Rescue and reform to get Lebanon out of its crisis.

In addition, responsible sources revealed to Al-Jumhuriya that the Western diplomatic movement in Beirut may soon lead to visits by a number of senior officials to Beirut, especially from Paris, the Vatican, and Gulf Arab countries that play a significant role in the arena of presidential elections. As well as from the League of Arab States.

In this context, the visit of a delegation from the US Congress headed by Representative Mark Takato, and the membership of Representatives Colin Allred and Katie Porter, will last for one day, where he is supposed to meet Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri, Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati, Foreign Minister Abdullah Bou Habib, and Army Commander General Joseph help.

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